4/28/2012

Budget Proposals

  •  CBO Updated Budget Projections:, Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 (March 2012) 
    • Baseline (2013-2022) = -1.4% of GDP
    • Alternative Fiscal Scenario = -5.3% of GDP (2.5% change due to taxes, and 1.4% due to outlays)
  • "Debt, Taxes and Politics: The President's Budget for 2013" Note the DEBT/GDP:
    1. Decreased from WW II till FORD 
    2. a flat-ish period under FORD and CARTER.
    3. Increased under REAGAN and BUSH I,
    4. Started to Decrease under Clinton, and then
    5. Increased at the end of BUSH II and OBAMA.
    6. The president's budget seems to start decreasing the DEBT/GDP ratio in 2015 
     
  • What Caused The Deficit? ... The White House fought back with a chart showing that its policy changes contributed only a small fraction to the worsening deficit picture
  • the BUSH II and OBAMA increase in the Debit was roughly equal to the Bush tax cuts, the Wars, the loss of revenue due to the recession and the automatic recession spending, with a short term, 3 years, also due to the Stimulus "TARP..., Recovery" packages.
  • Individual Income Tax Breaks ~1.3 trillion/year
    • A Roadmap for America’s Future {"Jan 2010, Republican house (Paul Ryan)} is a comprehensive alternative to the heavily government-centered ideology now prevailing in Washington, which pursues a relentless expansion of government, and creates a growing culture of dependency – and in the process worsens a status quo that already threatens to overwhelm the budget and smother the economy."
     Summary
    Obama proposal to Joint Committee:
    • Obama does have a deficit-cutting plan, one that's been lauded for its specifics and includes a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, with an emphasis on near-term stimulus and middle-term deficit reduction -- a hierarchy of priorities that coincides with the advice of economists, who note that unemployment is still the most immediate need. (PDF)

    Simpson-Bowles proposal:
    • On November 1, 2010 the committee submitted its final report making recommendations on discretionary spending, tax reform, health care savings, social security, and other mandatory programs. The plan needed a super-majority to be officially supported by the committee, but on December 3, 2010 if received only 11 of the 14 votes needed.  (http://www.thepoliticalguide.com)
    • What Was Actually in Bowles-Simpson? (From: The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)
      •                                       Total plan   Not yet enacted
        Ten-year cumulative totals in trillions of dollars




        Revenue increases $2.6 $2.6
        Program cuts $2.9 $1.4
        Interest savings $0.8 $0.6
        TOTAL deficit reduction $6.3 $4.6
        Ratio, program cuts to revenue increases
        Not counting interest 1.1 to 1.0 0.5 to 1.0
        Counting interest 1.4 to 1.0 0.8 to 1.0

         


    • The Congressional Progressive Caucus’s Budget for All puts Americans back to work, charts a path to responsible deficit reduction, enhances our economic competitiveness, rebuilds the middle class and invests in our future. Our budget makes no cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits, and asks those who have benefited most from our economy to pay a sensible share. Executive Summary: (PDF)
     Social Security

    Paul Ryan (and Romney) negative links.

    Various graphs/analysis of Budget factors

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