11/05/2010

economy and budget Nov, 2010

June 22-23, 2010 -- Federal Reserve Banks ... 
submitted projections for output growth, unemployment, and inflation for the years 2010 to 2012 and over the longer run. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, June 2010
Percent
Variable Central tendency1 Range2
2010 2011 2012 Longer run 2010 2011 2012 Longer run
Change in real GDP 3.0 to 3.5 3.5 to 4.2 3.5 to 4.5 2.5 to 2.8 2.9 to 3.8 2.9 to 4.5 2.8 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
     April projection 3.2 to 3.7 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.5 2.5 to 2.8 2.7 to 4.0 3.0 to 4.6 2.8 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
Unemployment rate 9.2 to 9.5 8.3 to 8.7 7.1 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.3 9.0 to 9.9 7.6 to 8.9 6.8 to 7.9 5.0 to 6.3
     April projection 9.1 to 9.5 8.1 to 8.5 6.6 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.3 8.6 to 9.7 7.2 to 8.7 6.4 to 7.7 5.0 to 6.3
PCE inflation 1.0 to 1.1 1.1 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.7 1.7 to 2.0 0.9 to 1.8 0.8 to 2.4 0.5 to 2.2 1.5 to 2.0
     April projection 1.2 to 1.5 1.1 to 1.9 1.2 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.1 to 2.0 0.9 to 2.4 0.7 to 2.2 1.5 to 2.0
Core PCE inflation3 0.8 to 1.0 0.9 to 1.3 1.0 to 1.5   0.7 to 1.5 0.6 to 2.4 0.4 to 2.2  
     April projection 0.9 to 1.2 1.0 to 1.5 1.2 to 1.6   0.7 to 1.6 0.6 to 2.4 0.6 to 2.2  


August 21, 2010  Economic Projections in CBO's Budget Update


Fy 2009 -- United States federal budget, Wikipedia
The U.S. budget situation has deteriorated significantly since 2001, when the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast average annual surpluses of approximately $850 billion from 2009-2012. The average deficit forecast in each of those years as of June 2009 was approximately $1,215 billion. The New York Times analyzed this roughly $2 trillion "swing," separating the causes into four major categories along with their share:
    • Recessions or the business cycle (37%);
    • Policies enacted by President Bush (33%);
    • Policies enacted by President Bush and supported or extended by President Obama (20%); and
    • New policies from President Obama (10%).
    (Log Scale) Long-term real growth in US GDP 1871-2009 by Catherine on November 4, 2010
    Log scale version of yesterday’s Real Growth of US GDP graph.
    • Annualized Real Stocks Price Growth    1.95%
    • Annualized Real GDP Growth                  3.47%

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