8/24/2012

Dover (Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District)

  • "[T]eachers would be required to read the following statement to students in the ninth-grade biology class at Dover High School:
    1. The Pennsylvania Academic Standards require students to learn about Darwin's theory of evolution and eventually to take a standardized test of which evolution is a part.
    2. Because Darwin's Theory is a theory, it is still being tested as new evidence is discovered. The Theory is not a fact. Gaps in the Theory exist for which there is no evidence. A theory is defined as a well-tested explanation that unifies a broad range of observations.
    3. Intelligent design is an explanation of the origin of life that differs from Darwin's view. The reference book, Of Pandas and People, is available for students to see if they would like to explore this view in an effort to gain an understanding of what intelligent design actually involves.
    4. As is true with any theory, students are encouraged to keep an open mind. The school leaves the discussion of the origins of life to individual students and their families. As a standards-driven district, class instruction focuses upon preparing students to achieve proficiency on standards-based assessments."


     Tammy Kitzmiller, et al. v. Dover Area School District, et al., Case No. 04cv2688, was the first direct challenge brought in United States federal courts against a public school district that tried to mandate teachers to read a statement to the students about intelligent design as an alternative "explanation" to evolution. The plaintiffs claimed that intelligent design is a form of creationism, and the school board policy thus violated the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment.
      Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District has closely examined the implications of intelligent design for public schools. The Memorandum Opinion by Judge John E. Jones III sets out his findings in considerable detail and will have significant influence. {See kitzmiller_342.pdf for the Memorandum as originally formatted (pdf).}
     Because of the size of this memorandum, the article is split into parts determined by topics. Successive parts are listed below:
  1. Introduction (1-17)
  2. Context (17-35)
  3. Disclaimer (36-64)
  4. Whether ID Is Science (64-89)
  5. Promoting Religion (90-116)
  6. Curriculum, Conclusion (116-139)
  • [T]he better practice in this Circuit is for this Court to also evaluate the challenged conduct separately under the Lemon test.18 See Child Evangelism, 386 F.3d at 530-35; Modrovich, 385 F.3d at 406; Freethought, 334 F.3d at 261. As articulated by the Supreme Court, under the Lemon test, a government sponsored message violates the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment if:
         (1) it does not have a secular purpose;
         (2) its principal or primary effect advances or inhibits religion; or
         (3) it creates an excessive entanglement of the government with religion.
     Lemon, 403 U.S. at 612-13. As the Lemon test is disjunctive, either an improper purpose or an improper effect renders the ID Policy invalid under the Establishment Clause.19


  • "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."
    
     Originally, the First Amendment applied only to the federal government. A number of the states effectively had established churches when the First Amendment was ratified, with some remaining into the early nineteenth century.
     Subsequently, Everson v. Board of Education (1947) incorporated the Establishment Clause (i.e., made it apply against the states). However, it was not until the middle to late twentieth century that the Supreme Court began to interpret the Establishment and Free Exercise Clauses in such a manner as to restrict the promotion of religion by the states. In the Board of Education of Kiryas Joel Village School District v. Grumet, 512 U.S. 687 (1994), Justice David Souter, writing for the majority, concluded that "government should not prefer one religion to another, or religion to irreligion."[1]

   Note: Defintion of "religion:  1) The belief in and worship of a superhuman controlling power, esp. a personal God or gods."

8/15/2012

Presidential prediction (Polling and Betting)

The upcoming Presidential and legislative, and state elections are being predicted by various people and methods. This posting is a collection of links to these various sites. (See: discussion of Polling)

  • FiveThirtyEight’s mission [by Nate Silver] is to help New York Times readers cut through the clutter of this data-rich world. The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means. In addition, FiveThirtyEight provides forecasts of upcoming presidential, Congressional, and gubernatorial elections through the use of its proprietary prediction models. Read more (About) »
  • Poll or set of Polls


Another way to estimate the future is to look at the results of markets. There are a number of market that allow individuals to bet (or pseudo bet) on future outcomes. The "Wisdom of the Crowds" suggests that a large number of individuals will gather a verity of information and if properly managed, isolated, motivated, on average, come up with a more accurate estimate than either they in the field would individually come up with. The following are some of these prediction markets:

Intrade, the world's leading prediction market (Political market)
IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) is an online futures market where contract payoffs are based on real-world events such as political outcomes, companies' earnings per share (EPS), and stock price returns.

===============================================================

Which presidential polls were most accurate?

================================================================

Polling
 
There are a number of sites that discuss the results of their polls, i.e. their asking people how they will vote. The results are interesting but are not "perfect" for at least the following reasons:

  1. Future -- It is hard to predict the  future: Even if the results were perfect, they represent the results as of the time of polling and the actual vote will be taken from the time the initial absentee ballot is marked till the final election day. Thus the poll results only reflect a snapshot of a distributed process in which about 50% will be actualized in the future on voting day
    .
  2. Sample Bias -- The sample is taken from the people at large. On the other hand since we have only 50% of the population voting, and there will be a different distribution of the voters than the polled population, the pollsters try to adjust by determining the "Likely Voters" and the greater tendency of various groups to vote. Since these are not objective, they can cause polls to be incorrect.
     
  3. Sample Size -- A poll asks people how they "plan" to vote. But the general sample size is often about 1,000 people, and thus has a statistical variation of about 3%,e.g. The results will be  more than 3% off 1/20 times. Thus if the results are within 3%, there is a 5% chance that the true results will be the other way.
Regardless of these  problems Polls are one tool for predicting the future of elections. Perhaps the best way a reader can use the polling results is to looks at results of a number of polls, considering the estimated errors and biases of each, and recognize that though a specific result may be imperfect, the trends and combinations may well be better.

The following are some links to various polls.

8/02/2012

08, August sites

  •  The Lost Decade of the Middle Class Fewer, Poorer, Gloomier {Note: the middle tier is defined as those living in households with an annual incom that is 67% to 200% of the national median}  (Pew Research Center)
========================
  • Open Source Democracy, OSD // A Movement to Develop // A Web Site, A Cloud Computing Service // For Government Change Actions and for American Voters 
  •   

7/04/2012

07, July sites

July 2012 Sites

Sept. 30 -- GOP tries to avert shutdown showdown, continuing resolution needed
Dec. 31 --  Fiscal cliff: major tax cuts expire and $1.2 trillion in spending cuts to go into effect.
----------- Geithner has said he estimates that U.S. borrowing could hit the debt ceiling by the end of 2012

SOME American states receive more in federal spending than they pay in federal taxes... (Economist)
Government Spending and the Economy (11% grew the GDP) By BRUCE BARTLETT
Bubbles and Bailouts: Why Some Economists Failed (FT, Financial Times)
What Everyone Should Know About The DISCLOSE Act Of 2012

S&P changes 1871 - 2010
CPI change 1871- 2010 (Linear with changes time events)

    These Top 10 iPhone Calendar Apps

    Health Care case   

    Online ACA symposium: A theory of the tax power that justifies – and may have informed – the Chief Justice’s analysis
    Video: SCOTUS ACA Health Care Decision Panel: U.C. Berkeley: July 2, 2012 10 AM (Transcript)
    Supreme Court Decision: What It Means and What's Ahead for Health Reform conference call

    Kaiser Health News – Health care webcast {Video 1 hr}
    ObamaCare Explained So Everyone Can Understand It (Political Irony)
    Is Obamacare The Biggest Tax Increase In History?,  [Chart],  [Tax Increases 1940 - 2012 {pdf}]

    6/15/2012

    06, June sites

    6/20/2012
    Romney Is Wrong on What Drives a Recovery (GPD change/Givernment spending)
    Our nation’s institutions have crumbled,  ... Hayes pins the blame on an unlikely suspect: meritocracy
    When You’re Gonna Die  In: Science
    America Revealed (PBS and Amazon)

    6/14/2012

         The increases in Debt/GDP occurred during WW II, Reagen, Bush I, and  Bush II, and the Decreases during the presidents after WW II, Clinton,  and sightly under the second Obama term as projected by the OMB.


    6/11/2012
    500 Free Movies Online: Great Classics, Indies, Noir, Westerns, etc.

    Robert Reich on Beyond Outrage: Stopping the Cycle of Political Cynicism
    Books on America’s Divergent Economic Paths By ECONOMIX EDITORS
    Why The Supreme Court Needs To Make Sure That Selling A Used iPad Isn't A Copyright Violation


       Bad Link (1), (2)
       Good Link (1)

    4/28/2012

    Budget Proposals

    •  CBO Updated Budget Projections:, Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 (March 2012) 
      • Baseline (2013-2022) = -1.4% of GDP
      • Alternative Fiscal Scenario = -5.3% of GDP (2.5% change due to taxes, and 1.4% due to outlays)
    • "Debt, Taxes and Politics: The President's Budget for 2013" Note the DEBT/GDP:
      1. Decreased from WW II till FORD 
      2. a flat-ish period under FORD and CARTER.
      3. Increased under REAGAN and BUSH I,
      4. Started to Decrease under Clinton, and then
      5. Increased at the end of BUSH II and OBAMA.
      6. The president's budget seems to start decreasing the DEBT/GDP ratio in 2015 
       
    • What Caused The Deficit? ... The White House fought back with a chart showing that its policy changes contributed only a small fraction to the worsening deficit picture
    • the BUSH II and OBAMA increase in the Debit was roughly equal to the Bush tax cuts, the Wars, the loss of revenue due to the recession and the automatic recession spending, with a short term, 3 years, also due to the Stimulus "TARP..., Recovery" packages.
    • Individual Income Tax Breaks ~1.3 trillion/year
      • A Roadmap for America’s Future {"Jan 2010, Republican house (Paul Ryan)} is a comprehensive alternative to the heavily government-centered ideology now prevailing in Washington, which pursues a relentless expansion of government, and creates a growing culture of dependency – and in the process worsens a status quo that already threatens to overwhelm the budget and smother the economy."
       Summary
      Obama proposal to Joint Committee:
      • Obama does have a deficit-cutting plan, one that's been lauded for its specifics and includes a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, with an emphasis on near-term stimulus and middle-term deficit reduction -- a hierarchy of priorities that coincides with the advice of economists, who note that unemployment is still the most immediate need. (PDF)

      Simpson-Bowles proposal:
      • On November 1, 2010 the committee submitted its final report making recommendations on discretionary spending, tax reform, health care savings, social security, and other mandatory programs. The plan needed a super-majority to be officially supported by the committee, but on December 3, 2010 if received only 11 of the 14 votes needed.  (http://www.thepoliticalguide.com)
      • What Was Actually in Bowles-Simpson? (From: The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)
        •                                       Total plan   Not yet enacted
          Ten-year cumulative totals in trillions of dollars




          Revenue increases $2.6 $2.6
          Program cuts $2.9 $1.4
          Interest savings $0.8 $0.6
          TOTAL deficit reduction $6.3 $4.6
          Ratio, program cuts to revenue increases
          Not counting interest 1.1 to 1.0 0.5 to 1.0
          Counting interest 1.4 to 1.0 0.8 to 1.0

           


      • The Congressional Progressive Caucus’s Budget for All puts Americans back to work, charts a path to responsible deficit reduction, enhances our economic competitiveness, rebuilds the middle class and invests in our future. Our budget makes no cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits, and asks those who have benefited most from our economy to pay a sensible share. Executive Summary: (PDF)
       Social Security

      Paul Ryan (and Romney) negative links.

      Various graphs/analysis of Budget factors

          3/23/2012

          Health bill, Supreme Court

           Health bill, Supreme court

          See Previous HelthCareUS etc.

          (SCOTUSblog)

          SCOTUSblog: Our health care resource page, including briefs and documents, argument previews ..
           

          (American Progress)


          SCOTUS Preview Part I:     What The Heck Is The Tax Anti-Injunction Act?
          SCOTUS Preview Part II:   Clement’s Misleading Brief, By Ian Millhiser on Mar 23, 2012
           SCOTUS Preview Part III: The Perils Of Overreach
          SCOTUS Preview Part IV:   The Big Scary 
          Romney Celebrates Health Care Reform Anniversary By Lying About It
          1. It’s more like double that (a trillion dollars) …Obamacare is massively more expensive than had been originally estimated.”
          2. Thirty percent of employers said they are going to drop the coverage for their employees when Obamacare is installed.” 
          3. The Catholic Church is being told that they have to provide insurance that covers morning after pills, sterilizations, and contraceptives. Despite the fact that these very features violate the conscience of the Catholic Church itself. 
          ==============================================================

          The Multimillionaire Helping Republicans Win N.C. (NPR summary)

          ===============================================================

          George Washington University School of Business March 2012

          The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis Origins and Mission of the Federal Reserve, (Videos)

          3/20/2012

          March 20, 2011

           March 20, 2011

          10 Ways to Visualize How Americans Spend Money on Health Care - Derek Thompson - Business - The Atlantic

          Does the American Dream Exist Only in Europe? -- Perhaps. But if you think America’s class system is as rigid as Europe’s, then you don’t know an old-fashioned social hierarchy when you see one.

          The Twilight of Retirement's Golden Age -- Chart of the Week, March 20, 2012


          The Most Conservative Congress Ever Recorded --  Republicans are both beholden to the 1 percent and responsible for the hyper-polarization of Congress. A new study by Poole has found that Republicans have moved so far to the right that the House is now the most conservative it has even been in the last 133 years

          Teaching Abstinence Works Better Than Sex Ed, Feb 2, 2010
          • 1/2 -- Just under half of the students in the study who received sex-education classes that included information about contraceptives went on to have sex in the next two years. 
          • 1/3 -- But only one out of three students in the study who received abstinence-only education did.
          "MIT OpenCourseWare is developing a set of courses called Scholar, which are designed for self-learners. We recently published 6.00 (or Introduction to Computer Science and Programming in normal speak). There are lecture videos, recitation videos, handouts, slides, code files, homework assignments (with sample solutions), and even an explanation on how to set up Python on your computer.

          The Origin of Modern Republican Fiscal Policy, By BRUCE BARTLETT

          3/13/2012

          Political Polarization ... voteview blog

          • The national government is strongly Ideologically Polarized, and by Party Polarization. This segregation seems to have been increasing, at least amount our government officials and perhaps even among our population.

          VoteView.com /Blog

          Media and Polarization, (56p) Nov 16, 2010 , Filipe Campante, Harvard Kennedy School
          • This paper provides an economic framework to explain the impact of the media on political polarization.
           
          Who Fits the Left-Right Divide? Partisan Polarization in the American Electorate, Edward G. Carmines (See:)

          3/10/2012

          2012/03 stuff



          2/20/2012

          Betting sites, Specifically Barack Obama to be re-elected

          Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 
          •  2012/02/20 -- 59%
          The IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) is an online futures market where contract payoffs are based on real-world events such as political outcomes, companies' earnings per share (EPS), and stock price returns.
          • 2012/02/20 -- 60%
          Discussion of betting sites:


          2/17/2012

          Economic Indexes

          CPI [core] -- Consumer Price Index, the best known measure of inflation (which is the overall inflation rate excluding Food and Energy). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. (This also shows the growth of the CPI components as well as the core and extended CPI growth)

           Inflation Deflation- New York Times (Econmix.blogs) Aug, 2011


          "John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics"
          An electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype.


          INFLATION
          GDP -- Goss Domestic Product.
          The S&P Composite (CPI adjusted) stretching back to 1871


           

            Items Feb 2012

            The course 'Model Thinking' will go live very shortly. When it does go live, we'll be asking you to officially register and agree to some standard terms and conditions. In the interim, you can now go to the site ... and watch the first two sets of lectures. [See mail]
            • The first set of lectures covers the benefits of modeling and provides a framework for the course. 
            • The second set covers Thomas Schelling's seminar model of segregation as well as a model of standing ovations that I developed with John Miller of Carnegie Mellon University.
                 I’m beginning a new project at Stanford/CDDRL called “The Governance Project.” The intention is to focus on conceptualizing and measuring governance, and applying those measures to two specific countries, China and the United States....
                 I discuss these issues at greater length in a paper on authoritarian government in Asia for the Journal of Democracy, and a draft discussion paper on how to define and measure governance (pdf) for The Governance Project.


            Gov 2.0 year in review ... A look at the Gov 2.0 themes, moments and achievements that made an impact in 2011.

            Coming Apart: The State of White America

            David Frum recently reviewed .... "Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010".
                 [by Charles  Murray] -- Feb 9, 2012

            Charles Murray [perhaps] does a Tucker Carlson, provoking me to unleash the usual torrent of graphs
                  -- 8 February 2012,

            Citizens Untied

            The Media’s Shameful, Inexcusable Distortion Of The Supreme Court’s Citizens United Decision
                 by Dan Abrams  -- February 8th, 2012

            Corporate Leveraging of Campaign Contributions Under Citizens United
                 Posted by Beverly Mann | 2/10/2012


            WWS 594, Economics of the Welfare State,  [Paul Krugman]

            Class #1 -- Feb. 8: Introduction,Class #2, February 15,

            Berin Szoka: "Privacy, Analytics & the First Amendment" at GSM Workshop
            November 11, 2011, 2:00 PM - 4:00 PM


             Political Polarization (VoteView)

            Obama the Moderate (a plot of the last 11 presidential positions Liberal/Conservative) [Forwarded to: Edward G. Carmines] carmines@indiana.edu 

            An Update on Political Polarization (through 2011) -- Posted on January 30, 2012 by voteview


            Obama's Economic Speech

            President Obama's speech in Oklahoma

            The Most Important Economic Speech of His Presidency [Robert Reich]
            HealthCare

            The Options for Payment Reform in U.S. Health Care // By UWE E. REINHARDT, February 17, 2012
            ------------------------------------------------------------------------

            Wow: Larry Lessig Interviews Jack Abramoff

            ‘Repeal’ of Glass-Steagall Irrelevant to Financial Crisis by Thomas E. Woods, Jr.

            Social Security: The Elevator Pitch, Posted by Steve Roth | 1/29/2012 

            Nick Kristof and the School Reform Straw Man 01/23/2012 by Peter Hart

            The Best App Discovery App for iPhone ... , Discovr Apps makes it easy to find what you're looking for by mapping apps you like (or any app at all) to related options you may enjoy as well.

            Create a Bootable Linux Flash Drive in Three Easy Steps By Rick Broida, PCWorld    Feb 13, 2012

            ----------------------------------------------------------------------

            12/29/2011

            2012 Political Predictions

            2012 Political Predictions
            ----------------------------------------------

              12/24/2011

              12/20/2011

              Newt and the Courts

              Newt And The Courts, Andrew Sullivan The Dish 

              1. Courting Disaster ... Newt Gingrich's ill-advised war on the only branch of government that people believe in. By Dahlia Lithwick  (Slate)

              2. Newt and His Surprising Liberal Allies ... He’s not the only one who thinks there is a huge problem with giving the Supreme Court final say on the Constitution. By (Slate)

              When Did Liberals Become So Unreasonable? ... If every Democratic president disappoints, maybe there’s something wrong with our expectations. Tough love from a fellow traveler. By Jonathan Chait (New York  mag)

              Political Calculations .. Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too!

              Sorry, Deniers, Study of “True Global Warming Signal” Finds “Remarkably Steady” Rate of Manmade Warming Since 1979

              Fannie and Freddie Didn't Cause the Housing Crisis, By David Min .. The housing bubble occurred during a period when Fannie and Freddie's market share of, high-risk mortgages dropped. 

              9/18/2011

              2011/09 topics

              Sept 21

              And About Those Structural Imbalances I think Matt Yglesias is closing in on a crucial difference between two sides in this debate about how to get out of our current economic mess, a difference that doesn’t divide neatly along a right-versus-left axis....
              1. What caused that hit – presumably the massive financial crisis triggered by the fall in housing prices – is less important than the fact of the hit. Monetary policy has the tools to reduce the attractiveness of holding money. If money is less attractive, then goods and services become relatively more attractive, so aggregate demand goes up. ...

              2. the broader cause of the crisis was that consumption growth in the 2000s was overwhelmingly driven by rising consumer debt. Consumer debt was rising because wages were not keeping up with the rising cost of living. The large gains in global productivity in the 2000s, to the extent that they accrued to the United States, were captured as what amount to rents by the health and financial sectors.
              ____________________________________________
              Sept 17

              Grading Obama Economic Policy: The First Year and a Half
               (Brad DeLong)
              • The banking system collapse was averted.
              • The spike of the unemployment rate to 15% was averted.
              • Obama passed a pretty good regulatory reform.
              • Obama passed a pretty good health reform.
              • Obama passed the largest quick fiscal expansion he could get through congress (using Reconciliation would have taken a lot longer).
              • but We are left with a jobless recovery, and with crippled mortgage finance and construction, and a ticking bomb in Europe.

              Hidden Tax: US Families Pay an Extra $1,000 per Year to Support Religion

              Report: What Happens If The Tea Party Wins, everything that will cease to exist if the Tea Party gets it’s way:
              • Social Security and Medicare
              • Medicaid, SCHIP, and other health care programs
              • All federal education programs
              • All federal antipoverty programs
              • Federal disaster relief
              • Federal food safety inspections and other food safety programs
              • Child labor laws, the minimum wage, overtime, and other labor protections
              • Federal civil rights laws
              Would a Perry v. Obama Contest Be a Confederacy v. Union Rematch? For conservatives, Perry victorious would mean nothing less than the South as a phoenix in the form of an eagle, rising from the ashes of a short-lived and fallen nation.

              Ideological Locations of 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates (VoteView)
              Can Retraining Give the Unemployed a Second Chance? Americans looking for employment often lack the skills they need. Retraining works. Sometimes (Bloomberg)

              The Election of 2012: Why the Most Important Issues May Be Off the Table (But Should Be On It) (Robert Reich)

              Has American-Style Conservatism Become a Religion? Fundamentalist religion plays a big role in today's Republican party--but has it gone even further, spreading dangerous beliefs as articles of faith? 


              Clarence Darrow on Eugenics
              The 10 Numbers You Need to Know About E-Verify, E-Verify has a massive failure rate and will keep legal workers out of a job. 
              • $17.3 billion: The amount of federal revenue that will be lost over 10 years.
              • $2.6 billion: The amount small businesses would have had to spend in 2010 if E-Verify had been mandatory.
              • $1,254 to $24,422: The average first-year startup costs for running E-Verify per small business.
              • $765 million to $838 million: The amount of money the Department of Homeland Security estimates it will need to run mandatory E-Verify over a four-year period.
              • $281 million: The amount of money the Social Security Administration estimates it will need to run mandatory E-Verify over a five-year period60 million: The number of new hires in the United States each year, all of whom would require verification through E-Verify.
              • 22 million: The number of government employees who would require re-verification—verification through E-Verify 
              • 1.2 million to 3.5 million: The number of Americans who will be required to go to a Social Security Administration office to fix erroneous information.
              • 770,000: The number of Americans who will be unable to fix the government database errors and will ultimately lose their jobs because of E-Verify.
              • 46 percent: E-Verify’s success rate at catching unauthorized workers. In other words, E-Verify fails to detect unauthorized workers more than half of the time.
              The Myth of Middle-Class Stagnation

               The Pentagon’s Latest Misleading Argument To Protect Its Budget: Cuts Will Lead To Higher Unemployment,
              military spending does very poorly. It creates about
              • 12,000 jobs per $1 billion in spending, [military spending] compared with 
              • 17,000 for the green economy,
              • 20,000 for health care and 
              • 29,000 for education.

              8/21/2011

              Texas "Facts"

              Liberal spin
              • Texas Tax System Heavily Burdens Poor Residents (Aug 2011) Huff post
                • Even without having to pay income tax, the poorest fifth of Texans ended up paying about 12 percent of their income in taxes in 2009, ITEP reports. The wealthiest 1 percent of Texans paid only 3 percent of their income in state and local taxes.  

                8/16/2011

                8/15/2011

                << p.s. In the future I will be investigating what rights Americans have, if any, relative to the states, as strong federalists see them, or if most of these are entirely up to the individual states independent of any federal intervention ... As far as I can see there is very little that restricts the states actions"
                Links:

                http://gizmodo.com/5831085/everything-scientists-thought-they-knew-about-cancer-might-be-totally-wrong

                http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2011/08/15/295767/rick-perrys-plan-for-higher-taxes-on-the-retired-and-disabled/

                http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/08/medicare-spending-decelerates.html

                http://reason.com/blog/2011/08/15/what-would-libertarians-do-a-c

                http://www.viralblender.com/2011/08/14/earth-landscapes-that-will-blow-your-mind/

                http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/08/15/295839/rick-perry-thinks-texas-climate-scientists-are-in-a-secular-carbon-cult/

                http://www.slate.com/id/2301691/?from=rss

                http://www.alternet.org/news/152037/21_reasons_rick_perry%27s_texas_is_a_complete_disaster/?page=entire

                http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Regression-to-Trend.php

                http://www.alternet.org/economy/152010/americans_don%27t_realize_just_how_badly_we%27re_getting_screwed_by_the_top_0.1_percent_hoarding_the_country%27s_wealth?page=entire

                http://politicalirony.com/2011/08/16/actual-government-spending-has-gone-down/



                Note: In the future I will be investigating what rights Americans have, if any, relative to the states, as strong federalists see them, or if most of these are entirely up to the individual states independent of any federal intervention ... As far as I can see there is very little that restricts the states actions"

                  I am defining "Strong Federalists" as those who interpret the Constitution as:

                    1) Restricting the Commerce clause as only allowing federal action with respect to adjudicating direct movement of (manufactured) goods between the states, or perhaps from one state to foreign areas.

                    2) Restricting the incorporation of rights to those that were required to allow the freed slaves to participate in national and possibly local government.

                    3) Restricting the Federal Courts to deciding the constitutionality of  its own functioning, not that of other branches of the Government.

                8/13/2011

                Monitory Policy, (Skepical Optimist)


                    Money: The economy’s lubrication
                1. Money: The economy’s lubrication
                2. Two Printing Presses: One at the Fed, One at the Treasury
                3. How the Fed creates money without creating socialism
                4. How the US Treasury pays back the debt
                5. The public’s T-bond supply
                6. Paying down the debt: Our dubious history, and a startling conclusion

                Articles on Economic "theories"

                  Other interesting stuff
                      "Seriously, what would it take for you to change your mind?"
                      • 1. For the left, If the Bush tax cuts benefitted only the rich, as you’ve been saying for nine years, why are you now saying that letting all the tax cuts expire will hurt the middle class? Which is it: Did the Bush tax cuts help the middle class, or didn’t they?  
                      • 2. For the tea party, If you had a choice between a tax policy that would increase tax revenues by increasing the number of job creators and taxpayers, versus a policy that would decrease the total debt level by whatever means, which one would you favor? Would you settle for a debt level that is shrinking relative to the size of the economy (an expanding economy with a falling debt/GDP ratio), or would you insist on surpluses that reduced the total debt, regardless of the impact on jobs and job creation?   
                      • 3. For everyone: Why do we hear so much about where and how to “cut” – but so little about where and how to “grow”?  
                      • 4. For everyone: How about we redefine the term “balanced budget” as follows: A fiscal budget that causes, or at least coincides with, job creation and economic growth that exceeds debt growth, such that the ratio of debt to GDP is decreasing?





                      8/09/2011

                      Political Taxonomies

                      Political Taxonomies

                      There are at least two definitions for "Political Taxonomy":
                      1. A categorization of the  political systems, e.g. Democracy, Dictatorship... (Which I will ignore)
                      2. A categorization of the ways that individuals value political issues, and perhaps the valuation of an issue. e.g. Liberal, Conservative... (Note this is what I am interested in, MLL)
                      My theory is that a Good Political Taxonomy allows individuals and policies to be evaluated on each of the "dimensions", e.g. Categories, with a number from +1 thru -1. The objective is to be able to take the generalized distance between a person and a policy, and predict how close the policy is to the person's values. An ideal Taxonomy would:
                      • Minimize the number of, independant, Categories.
                      • Choose Categories that are: instinctive, clear, and easy to evaluate.
                      • Be effective at determining the important areas of agreement and disagreement between people and policies.
                      My theory is that an individuals and policies, can be  characterized by numeric (+1,-1) measures along each of the Taxonomy Categories and that one can make a reasonable guess as to how much a person prefers a policy by taking the "distance" between their location in the Taxonomy space.

                        I have tried to collect a list of these individual values taxonomies in  WeMatter.com/links#quiz


                        The one that I thought was most interesting was the: "Political Position Quiz, World's Smallest Political Quiz: 10 questions-- Libertarian vs. Authoritarian, Left vs. Right. The Advocates"
                        Note: This is similar to the PoliticalCompus.org analysis (See: below)

                        I just, 8/8/2011, started the book: "Beyond Red and Blue" and it suggests that there are 12 different political philosophies, (Political Taxonomies) that shape American debates:n

                        1. Theocracy
                        2. Natural Law
                        3. Libertarianism
                        4. Utilitarianism
                        5. Free-market Conserfatism
                        6. Contratirianism
                        7. Social Conservatism
                        8. Feminism
                        9. Mulitculturalism
                        10. Environmentslism
                        11. Communitarianism
                        12. Cosmopolitanism
                        ____________________________________________________________________


                        See:


                        • Liberal vs. Conservative -- relates to one’s basic assumptions about human capacities. -- a liberal outlook trusts individuals and questions authority; a conservative outlook distrusts individuals and defers to authority.
                          • A liberal is someone who is generally impressed with the capacities of an individual, and who therefore wants individuals to be free to develop those capacities. 
                          • A conservative by temperament takes the opposite side in this dispute. Most human beings are naturally afraid of freedom, eager to hand over decisionmaking power to some authority.

                          • Left vs. Right -- defined by attitudes towards success. -- A left-wing perspective is animated by an affinity for the losers and their interests, while a right-wing perspective is animated by an affinity for the winners and their interests.
                            • A left-wing perspective is animated by failure and the consequences thereof. Whether we’re talking about Rawlsian liberals or Christian socialists or orthodox Marxist-Leninists, the ultimate object of concern is the miserable of the earth. Their perspective, their needs, are the beginning and the end of political morality.
                            • A right-wing perspective is opposite to this. How to design a system that adequately rewards success is the essence of the right-wing political project.

                            • Progressive vs. Reactionary -- revolves around attitudes toward time and history -- A progressive viewpoint looks toward the future, while a reactionary looks back to the past.
                              • The progressive is future-oriented. Things will – or could – be better in the future than they are now.
                              • The reactionary, by contrast, is past-oriented. Things will – likely – be worse in the future than they are now, just as they were better in the past. 

                            • The Economic (Left-Right) axis measures one's opinion of how the economy should be run: "left" is defined as the view that the economy should be run by a cooperative collective agency (which can mean the state, but can also mean a network of communes), while "right" is defined as the view that the economy should be left to the devices of competing individuals and organisations. 
                            • The Social (Authoritarian-Libertarian) axis measures one's political opinions in a social sense, regarding a view of the appropriate amount of personal freedom: "libertarianism" is defined as the belief that personal freedom should be maximised, while "authoritarianism" is defined as the belief that authority and tradition should be obeyed