12/23/2010

Economic charts/graphs and discussions

Economic charts/graphs and discussions 12/22/2010
(Previous 12/07/2009)

  • MetricMash -- Dynamic graphs of US economic data, state unemployment rates & historical charts --  historical charts enabling insightful analysis of US economic data including national and state unemployment rates

11/26/2010

Economic notes

     "Economics Offers Tactics, Not Strategy - NYTimes.com" -- Interesting distinction...
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/16/economics-offers-tactics-not-strategy/

     "Comics for Economics"
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/15/comic-for-economics/

     'As noted in our news article, corporate profits reached a record last quarter, at least in nominal terms"
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/23/visualizing-booming-profits/

     "The Other Taxes: Who Pays Them?" According to this, excluding redistribution paybacks, we seem to have a sort of flat tax now.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/24/the-other-taxes-who-pays-them/

11/17/2010

Gaming the Vote

I have been taking a course on Choice/Voting theory, Arrow's theory, etc. and ran into this book, Gaming the Vote,  discussing the benefits of Range Voting, e.g. each Voter gives each, or some of the, candidate{s} a "value", say from 0 to 5, and the winning candidate is the one with the largest total . The author indicates that this is a better voting system (at least statistically) than the others, though it does require that each voter be able to not only rank, e.g. a > b > c...  the candidates, but also given them relative ratings.e.g.  a = 5, b= 4, c=0
  • Note: as is pointed out, this does not disprove Arrow's theorem, and  of course in some cases may be worse than others, but the author suggests that this system generates choices that minimize the "Bayes Dissatisfaction" and is relatively resistant to strategic voting manipulation.

This system was, the author says, discussed by: Warren D, Smith, during the 1990's, and his papers are at Temple University in {Works} the following are the ones that I think may be most interesting to me :
    My edit of the Wikipedia article is as follows 
Range voting (also called ratings summation, average voting, cardinal ratings, score voting, 0–99 voting, the score system, or the point system) is a voting sym for one-seat elections under which voters score, e.g 1-5, 0-99, etc. each candidate, the scores are added up, and the candidate with the highest score wins. “Gaming the Vote”  suggests that Range voting leads to the minimum Bayes dissatisfaction of all the voting systems analyzed. Range voting satisfies:
It dies not satisfy:
    • not satisfy either the Condorcet criterion (i.e. is not a Condorcet method) or the Condorcet loser criterion, although with all-strategic voters and perfect information the Condorcet winner is a Nash equilibrium.[7]
    • not satisfy the majority criterion, but it satisfies a weakened form of it: a majority can force their choice to win, although they might not exercise that capability.
    • not satisfy the later-no-harm criterion, meaning that giving a positive rating to a less preferred candidate can cause a more preferred candidate to lose.
    • not regarded as a counter-example to Arrow's theorem is that it is a cardinal voting system, while the "universality" criterion of Arrow's theorem effectively restricts that result to ordinal voting systems.


Note: I expect to add more links to Wikipedia discussions of various topics, but just wanted to point to the Smith papers now.
Voting System evaluation


A voting system contains rules for valid voting, and how votes are counted and aggregated to yield a final result. The study of formally defined voting systems is called voting theory,

With majority rule, those who are unfamiliar with voting theory are often surprised that another voting system exists, each of which has some undesirable features, or that "majority rule" systems can produce results not supported by a majority.

11/05/2010

economy and budget Nov, 2010

June 22-23, 2010 -- Federal Reserve Banks ... 
submitted projections for output growth, unemployment, and inflation for the years 2010 to 2012 and over the longer run. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, June 2010
Percent
Variable Central tendency1 Range2
2010 2011 2012 Longer run 2010 2011 2012 Longer run
Change in real GDP 3.0 to 3.5 3.5 to 4.2 3.5 to 4.5 2.5 to 2.8 2.9 to 3.8 2.9 to 4.5 2.8 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
     April projection 3.2 to 3.7 3.4 to 4.5 3.5 to 4.5 2.5 to 2.8 2.7 to 4.0 3.0 to 4.6 2.8 to 5.0 2.4 to 3.0
Unemployment rate 9.2 to 9.5 8.3 to 8.7 7.1 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.3 9.0 to 9.9 7.6 to 8.9 6.8 to 7.9 5.0 to 6.3
     April projection 9.1 to 9.5 8.1 to 8.5 6.6 to 7.5 5.0 to 5.3 8.6 to 9.7 7.2 to 8.7 6.4 to 7.7 5.0 to 6.3
PCE inflation 1.0 to 1.1 1.1 to 1.6 1.0 to 1.7 1.7 to 2.0 0.9 to 1.8 0.8 to 2.4 0.5 to 2.2 1.5 to 2.0
     April projection 1.2 to 1.5 1.1 to 1.9 1.2 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0 1.1 to 2.0 0.9 to 2.4 0.7 to 2.2 1.5 to 2.0
Core PCE inflation3 0.8 to 1.0 0.9 to 1.3 1.0 to 1.5   0.7 to 1.5 0.6 to 2.4 0.4 to 2.2  
     April projection 0.9 to 1.2 1.0 to 1.5 1.2 to 1.6   0.7 to 1.6 0.6 to 2.4 0.6 to 2.2  


August 21, 2010  Economic Projections in CBO's Budget Update


Fy 2009 -- United States federal budget, Wikipedia
The U.S. budget situation has deteriorated significantly since 2001, when the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast average annual surpluses of approximately $850 billion from 2009-2012. The average deficit forecast in each of those years as of June 2009 was approximately $1,215 billion. The New York Times analyzed this roughly $2 trillion "swing," separating the causes into four major categories along with their share:
    • Recessions or the business cycle (37%);
    • Policies enacted by President Bush (33%);
    • Policies enacted by President Bush and supported or extended by President Obama (20%); and
    • New policies from President Obama (10%).
    (Log Scale) Long-term real growth in US GDP 1871-2009 by Catherine on November 4, 2010
    Log scale version of yesterday’s Real Growth of US GDP graph.
    • Annualized Real Stocks Price Growth    1.95%
    • Annualized Real GDP Growth                  3.47%

      9/27/2010

      Law-268

      The following are some articles that I though might be interested for the Law-268 class that I am taking at Stanford. (mllive)

      Week 2 -- Constitutional Interpretation
       Week ? -- Election law


        8/10/2010

        Hints

        Google Reader
        • Next: Shift-A (Mark all read), Shift-N (Next Folder), Shift-O (Open)

        14th ammendment

        Amendment XIV, Section 1, Clause 1:
        • All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.

        In Wong Kim Ark (169 U.S. 649 (1898)) the Supreme Court held that under the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, a man born within the United States to foreigners (in that case, Chinese citizens) who have a permanent domicile and residence in the United States and are carrying on business in the United States[10] and who were not employed in a diplomatic or other official capacity by a foreign power, was a citizen of the United States. (Wiki)


        Alternatives to Birthright Citizenship
        by Will Wilkinson on August 10, 2010

        Birthright Citizenship Act of 2009 - Amends the Immigration and Nationality Act to consider a person born in the United States "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States for citizenship at birth purposes if the person is born in the United States of parents, one of whom is:

        1. a U.S. citizen or national;
        2. a lawful permanent resident alien whose residence is in the United States; or
        3. an alien performing active service in the U.S. Armed Forces.

        References

        7/15/2010

        Free Enterprise fundamentalists

        The Free Enterprise fundamentalists theorize that:

        The Free Enterprise system optimizes a society's economic welfare and therefore any other economic system is sub-optimal and is less beneficial.

        =====

        I believe that there are a number of questions:


        1) Which type of Free Enterprise system?

        • Fe.0 - Anarchy - There is no government involvement in the economic system, i.e. no protection for private property or against violence with respect to property

        • Fe.1 - Libertarian - The Government manages a court system that adjudicates contracts and natural law protection against theft and a legal enforcement system that enforces the judgements of the court.

        • Fe.2 - Communal - The Government provides the "Essential" common services, e.g. Defense, Police, Fire, Local roads, And??? (Note: Services that can be reasonably provided by private agencies, either by voluntary individual funding with some regulation or subsidies will generally be reserved for Fe.3+?)

        • Fe.3 - Regulatory - The Government passes laws that are meant to express the costs of dis-economies, market failures, and common understandings, and these are also judged and enforced.

        • Fe.4 - Re-Distributional - The Government determines that the poorer are not getting essential services or their "fair" share of the GDP and thus Taxes the richer to either provide the services or income to the poorer

        • Fe.5 - Planned - The Government determines future costs and benefits and Taxes and Subsidizes to decrease or increase activity in coordination with these determinations.
        • Fe.6 - Socialist - The Government owns and runs the major industries.

        • Fe.7 - Communist - The Government owns and runs the businesses and directs the employment of the citizens.

        2) What is the definition of society's economic welfare?
        1. GDP
        2. Maximum median income/wealth
        3. Maximum lower 1/10 income/wealth
        4. Jobs -- NO
        5. Size of Government -- NO
        and of course what time period should be considered, tomorrow, 10 years, a generation


        3) What other assumptions are required to prove the theory?
        1. Homo Economist
          1. Full information
          2. Rational consideration of present value
          3. etc?
        2. Static, Monotonic, ?Gaussian? Supply and Demand functions
        3. Lack of Chaotic system
        4. Lack of monopolies and irrational nations
        =====

        Open Questions

        1. Are there significant benefits to having small, diverse companies rather than large mega companies that man be balanced against some synergy?

        2. Are there significant benefits to having continuing existence on companies that may be balanced against increased efficiency of newer companies

        =====

        Problems

        1. Failure to "clear" labor market

        2. Instability of markets and general economy

        3. Lack of "sharing" of productivity growth, Income spread and median income does not increase

        4. Dis-economies, Elimination of Commons

        5. Insufficient investment and concern in the future

        =====

        Possible causes

        1. Black swan

        2. Fooled by Randomness

        3. Missing and asymmetric information

        4. Behavioral economics
          1. Excessive value for present

        5. Arrows impossibility theory

        =====

        6/18/2010

        Political Urban Legends

        There are a number of political statements, Urban Legends, that are believed that seem to be unsupported by any facts.


        Conservative Canards

        The Chinese are drilling in the gulf of Mexico (PolitiFact 2010)

        Liberal Lies


        ___________________________
        Also see:
        Contribute any others that you run across

        5/30/2010

        Subscription benefits

        Many WEB sites and News sources are trying to find out how to balance the material that they should offer free and that which they should only offer to their subscribers.

        My standard suggestion is that anyone should be able to link to your information, and add direct comments, but a subscriber should also be able to:

        1) Go directly to the information without going through an Ad Wall.

        2) Access past issues table of contents, their front page...

        3) Search past articles by tag, Keyword...

        4) Link their blog to any article with a headline of their choosing, with popularity ordering,, etc.

        5) More TBD.

        5/08/2010

        Paradoxes

        The 20-th century was the "No you Can't" century in which there were a number of Paradoxes that were discovered that "proved" that not all things were possible.

        Physics

        . Relativity -- Large Physics
        1. No material particle can be accelerated to the speed of light.
        2. The Speed of light is a constant and is not observed to be changed no matter the speed of the observer.
        3. There is no absolute space frame, e.g. one can not determine if one is stationary relative to any absolute space.
        . Quantum Mechanics -- Small Physics
        1. Many measurements are intermingled in that one can not measure both with infinite accuracy, e.g. Position and Momentum.
        2. The state of a system often is indeterminate, with no hidden values, and only exists when an observation collapses the state.
        3. Small particles (or waves) sometimes seem to be Particles, when their position is measures, and Waves when their path is measured.
        Arrow's impossibility theorem (for voting) -- There is no voting system that is a fair way of determining group Public Good from individual preferences if the system is meant to satisfy: "

        1. unrestricted domain, -- It should yield a unique and complete ranking of societal choices for any set of individual voter preferences.
        2. non-dictatorship, -- It cannot simply mimic the preferences of a single voter.
        3. independence of irrelevant alternatives -- Changes in individuals' rankings of irrelevant alternatives (ones outside the subset) should have no impact on the societal ranking of the relevant subset.
        4. Pareto efficiency, -- If every individual prefers a certain option to another, then so must the resulting societal preference order. (note: monotonicity, non-imposition, and independence of irrelevant alternatives together imply Pareto efficiency)
        Practical Paradoxes

        the following seem to be paradoxes, but are not proven.

        . Democratic Trilemma -- Fishkin -- No democratic system seems to satisfy the following three objectives.
        1. Participation -- All qualified members of the society shall participate in the determination of the policies of the society.
        2. Equality -- They shall be equally deterministic of the policies.
        3. Deliberation -- They shall spend sufficient time to thoughtfully evaluate the values and implications of their decisions.

        4/12/2010

        Competitive Democracy

        I am taking a course in Models of Democracy and leading the session on Competitive Democracy. As part of this I wrote a set of Class notes via Google Docs, and posted it on the web. The problem is that they generate a long URL, so I thought it would help to put it in this Blog post to make it easy to get to. The notes are linked to the title of this post and also from the following:


        Also see:

        2/15/2010

        Wingnuts

        Wingnuts

        A new book "Wingnuts: How the Lunatic Fringe is Hijacking America (Paperback) ~ John Avlon (Author)", describes the ideas and people that the author feels are "A wingnut is someone on the far-right or far-left wing of the political spectrum – professional partisans, unhinged activists, and paranoid conspiracy theorists". As this may be a subjective evalution, I am looking into a more objective measure of these catagories.

        • Wingnut Idea: An idea that is supported/believed by 5 to 15% of the population. (Note: I define an idea that is supported by less than 5% as just crazy and by over 15% as just unpopular or not)

        • Group Wingnut Idea: A Wingnut idea that is supported/believed by twice the percent of a specific group. (note: If the group is small, e.g. 1/nn-th of the overall population, then the percent should "nn" times as large.

        • Wingnut: A person who supports/believes 50% of the wingnet ideas.

        • Group (partisan) Wingnet: A person who supports/believes 50% of the wingnet ideas of one specific group.
        {TBD}

        2/07/2010

        Working across the Isle

        In the spirit or working across the isle I note some suggestions that might be interesting.

        • Schedule monthly 2 hour open, Televised, sessions between the president and the legislators in which they could discuss the issues and proposals that are important to them and the country. There is a first report, "John Cornyn: No thanks to President Obama Q & A" that it may be difficult to establish this.

        • Bring the Medicare and the Social Security proposals of the Republican Budget to the floor to have them voted upon. As I understand it:
          1. The proposal on Social Security is to move toward a Defined Contribution system, whose return might be based on stock market performance, rather than a system that pays a specific income, and if it is like the previous Bush plan, makes the Social Security system worse off for decades until the current generation dies off.
          2. The proposal for Medicare is to provide vouchers for un-regulated insurance purchases and these vouchers are to increase at 50% the rate of the cost of health care. Thus, if one assumes that the administrative cost of private insurance is 25% or so, and that Medicare is paying say 70% of the cost of medical treatment, then at year 1, this will reduce the amount of health care for the Medicare Patient by roughly half and then reduce it more as time proceed
        Also see:

        1/31/2010

        The government is not working

        Often I say, and hear "The Government is not Working" and was challenged at to what I meant and how to improve it.

        The easy definition, with I will reject, is that "The Government is not doing what I want it to do". This Subjective definition just leads to saying that one doesn't like the results, in general does not like some specific action.

        The definition that I'd like to explore is based on the assumption that America is supposed to be a Representative Democracy, and thus that "The Government is Enacting, or Not, laws that a large majority prefers". This definition is closer to an Objective one that might be tested and perhaps improved by changing the system in a non-ideological way rather working within a "broken" system.

        • Evidence

        (tbd)

        • Proposal
        • Any candidate, President, Congress person, commit to supporting any bill that polls over 67% support or to opposing any bill that polls under 33% in a properly defined poll.

        The poll would have to be
        1. Directly funded by the bills supporters or opposors, and be
        2. Sufficiently deep, say 5,000 respondents.
        3. Responsibly accurate, say only 3% Non Americans, etc???
        4. Reasonably thoughtful, say delayed 60 days after it is announced to give the respondents a chance to become educated on its proposal.

        Details

        1/06/2010

        Rational, Natural

        The terms "Rational" and {Super}Natural have been brought up in a discussion, and I realize that often there are diferent understandings.

        Rational == Logical and Verifiable
        • Logical = There are a set of understood first principals, e.g. Axioms that are, at least for discussion assumed. and then conclusions are derived from them by applying standard FORMAL logic, Math, etc.

        • Verifiable = The conclusions are clear enough so that they lead to predictions of the state of the observable world that can either be the basis of experiments or general obervations that are either fulfilled, i.e. or not, i.e. falsiable, and if the conclusions are not "true" then the original Axioms or derivations must be abandomed or adjusted.
        Note: A good Scientiest/Rationalist should attampt to
        derive conclusions that are improbable so that
        they are probably false rather than ones that
        are probable, e.g. they should try to DISPROVE
        their "Rational" theory rather than to support it.


        Supernational == ???

        1/03/2010

        iPhone world factbook, atlas

        iPhone world factbook, atlas