2012 Political Predictions

2012 Political Predictions

• Michael Tomasky, Paul Begala, More Beast Contributors, Dec 29, 2011
  
• KARL ROVE, As New Year's approaches, here are a baker's dozen predictions for 2012., DECEMBER 29, 2011
• Robert Reich, Obama-Clinton versus Romney-Rubio.Obama-Clinton hands down.   Jan 1, 2012

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• Bush ($5.07T) vs. Obama ($1.44T) spending Sullivan, Dec 30, 2011

Ron Paul

H.R.539 -- We the People Act H.R.539 --To limit the jurisdiction of the Federal courts, and for other purposes. -- January 14, 2009

Andrew Sullivan 

• The Circumstantial Evidence Against Paul, Dec 23, 2011
• Re-Thinking The Paul Endorsement,  Dec 24, 2011

Newt and the Courts

Newt And The Courts, Andrew Sullivan The Dish 

1. Courting Disaster ... Newt Gingrich's ill-advised war on the only branch of government that people believe in. By Dahlia Lithwick  (Slate)

2. Newt and His Surprising Liberal Allies ... He’s not the only one who thinks there is a huge problem with giving the Supreme Court final say on the Constitution. By Eric Posner (Slate)

When Did Liberals Become So Unreasonable? ... If every Democratic president disappoints, maybe there’s something wrong with our expectations. Tough love from a fellow traveler. By Jonathan Chait (New York  mag)

Political Calculations .. Welcome to the blogosphere's toolchest! Here, unlike other blogs dedicated to analyzing current events, we create easy-to-use, simple tools to do the math related to them so you can get in on the action too!

Sorry, Deniers, Study of “True Global Warming Signal” Finds “Remarkably Steady” Rate of Manmade Warming Since 1979

Fannie and Freddie Didn't Cause the Housing Crisis, By David Min .. The housing bubble occurred during a period when Fannie and Freddie's market share of, high-risk mortgages dropped. 

2011/12/11

2011/12/11 -- Links

The Price of Civilization: Reawakening American Virtue and Prosperity Audio Book | Jeffrey D. Sachs

1. The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World
2.  The Price of Civilization: Reawakening American Virtue and Prosperity Audio Book | Jeffrey D. Sachs
3. Your Medical Mind: How to Decide What Is Right for You

1. 3,500 Words On Hacked Climate Emails, But The Weekly Standard Still Comes Up Empty
2. Shut Down Unwanted Connections To Your PC With CloseTheDoor

 

 

Climate articles

The Big Picture: A 40-Year Scan of the Right-Wing Corporate Takeover of America

Science article recognizes John Mashey

NAS President Peter Wood: wrong, dishonest or hopelessly compromised? (New Mashey Report Disrobes Climate Disinformer)

From Oct 4, 2011 eMail:

 

2011/09 topics

Sept 21

And About Those Structural Imbalances I think Matt Yglesias is closing in on a crucial difference between two sides in this debate about how to get out of our current economic mess, a difference that doesn’t divide neatly along a right-versus-left axis....

1. What caused that hit – presumably the massive financial crisis triggered by the fall in housing prices – is less important than the fact of the hit. Monetary policy has the tools to reduce the attractiveness of holding money. If money is less attractive, then goods and services become relatively more attractive, so aggregate demand goes up. ...
   
   
2. the broader cause of the crisis was that consumption growth in the 2000s was overwhelmingly driven by rising consumer debt. Consumer debt was rising because wages were not keeping up with the rising cost of living. The large gains in global productivity in the 2000s, to the extent that they accrued to the United States, were captured as what amount to rents by the health and financial sectors.

"The Party Of Lincoln" Eric Kleefeld dusts off the 1860 and 1864 GOP platforms: [These] platforms inherited the Whig tradition of what were known at the time as "internal improvements" — government investment in infrastructure. For example, 

• the platforms called for government to aid in the large project of constructing a transcontinental railroad, to improve rivers and harbors, and to 
• have "a vigorous and just system of taxation" in order to ensure the payment of the national debt. The 1864 platform also 
• declared: "Resolved, That foreign immigration, which in the past has added so much to the wealth, development of resources and increase of power to the nation, the asylum of the oppressed of all nations, should be fostered and encouraged by a liberal and just policy."

____________________________________________

Sept 17

Grading Obama Economic Policy: The First Year and a Half
 (Brad DeLong)

• The banking system collapse was averted.
• The spike of the unemployment rate to 15% was averted.
• Obama passed a pretty good regulatory reform.
• Obama passed a pretty good health reform.
• Obama passed the largest quick fiscal expansion he could get through congress (using Reconciliation would have taken a lot longer).
• but We are left with a jobless recovery, and with crippled mortgage finance and construction, and a ticking bomb in Europe.

Hidden Tax: US Families Pay an Extra $1,000 per Year to Support Religion

Report: What Happens If The Tea Party Wins, everything that will cease to exist if the Tea Party gets it’s way:

• Social Security and Medicare
• Medicaid, SCHIP, and other health care programs
• All federal education programs
• All federal antipoverty programs
• Federal disaster relief
• Federal food safety inspections and other food safety programs
• Child labor laws, the minimum wage, overtime, and other labor protections
• Federal civil rights laws

Would a Perry v. Obama Contest Be a Confederacy v. Union Rematch? For conservatives, Perry victorious would mean nothing less than the South as a phoenix in the form of an eagle, rising from the ashes of a short-lived and fallen nation.

Ideological Locations of 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates (VoteView)

• a long term trend of polarization, with both parties diverging from one another beginning in the 1970s

Can Retraining Give the Unemployed a Second Chance? Americans looking for employment often lack the skills they need. Retraining works. Sometimes (Bloomberg)

The Election of 2012: Why the Most Important Issues May Be Off the Table (But Should Be On It) (Robert Reich)

Has American-Style Conservatism Become a Religion? Fundamentalist religion plays a big role in today's Republican party--but has it gone even further, spreading dangerous beliefs as articles of faith? 


Clarence Darrow on Eugenics

• a 1926 article written by Clarence Darrow where he condemns the idea of eugenics in terms both brilliant and devastating. 

The 10 Numbers You Need to Know About E-Verify, E-Verify has a massive failure rate and will keep legal workers out of a job. 

• $17.3 billion: The amount of federal revenue that will be lost over 10 years.
• $2.6 billion: The amount small businesses would have had to spend in 2010 if E-Verify had been mandatory.
• $1,254 to $24,422: The average first-year startup costs for running E-Verify per small business.
• $765 million to $838 million: The amount of money the Department of Homeland Security estimates it will need to run mandatory E-Verify over a four-year period.
• $281 million: The amount of money the Social Security Administration estimates it will need to run mandatory E-Verify over a five-year period60 million: The number of new hires in the United States each year, all of whom would require verification through E-Verify.
• 22 million: The number of government employees who would require re-verification—verification through E-Verify 
• 1.2 million to 3.5 million: The number of Americans who will be required to go to a Social Security Administration office to fix erroneous information.
• 770,000: The number of Americans who will be unable to fix the government database errors and will ultimately lose their jobs because of E-Verify.
• 46 percent: E-Verify’s success rate at catching unauthorized workers. In other words, E-Verify fails to detect unauthorized workers more than half of the time.

The Myth of Middle-Class Stagnation

 The Pentagon’s Latest Misleading Argument To Protect Its Budget: Cuts Will Lead To Higher Unemployment,
military spending does very poorly. It creates about

• 12,000 jobs per $1 billion in spending, [military spending] compared with 
• 17,000 for the green economy,
• 20,000 for health care and 
• 29,000 for education.

Texas "Facts"

Liberal spin

• Texas Tax System Heavily Burdens Poor Residents (Aug 2011) Huff post
Even without having to pay income tax, the poorest fifth of Texans ended up paying about 12 percent of their income in taxes in 2009, ITEP reports. The wealthiest 1 percent of Texans paid only 3 percent of their income in state and local taxes.  

• 
  

8/15/2011

<< p.s. In the future I will be investigating what rights Americans have, if any, relative to the states, as strong federalists see them, or if most of these are entirely up to the individual states independent of any federal intervention ... As far as I can see there is very little that restricts the states actions"
Links:

http://gizmodo.com/5831085/everything-scientists-thought-they-knew-about-cancer-might-be-totally-wrong

http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2011/08/15/295767/rick-perrys-plan-for-higher-taxes-on-the-retired-and-disabled/

http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/08/medicare-spending-decelerates.html

http://reason.com/blog/2011/08/15/what-would-libertarians-do-a-c

http://www.viralblender.com/2011/08/14/earth-landscapes-that-will-blow-your-mind/

http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/08/15/295839/rick-perry-thinks-texas-climate-scientists-are-in-a-secular-carbon-cult/

http://www.slate.com/id/2301691/?from=rss

http://www.alternet.org/news/152037/21_reasons_rick_perry%27s_texas_is_a_complete_disaster/?page=entire

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Regression-to-Trend.php

http://www.alternet.org/economy/152010/americans_don%27t_realize_just_how_badly_we%27re_getting_screwed_by_the_top_0.1_percent_hoarding_the_country%27s_wealth?page=entire

http://politicalirony.com/2011/08/16/actual-government-spending-has-gone-down/



Note: In the future I will be investigating what rights Americans have, if any, relative to the states, as strong federalists see them, or if most of these are entirely up to the individual states independent of any federal intervention ... As far as I can see there is very little that restricts the states actions"

  I am defining "Strong Federalists" as those who interpret the Constitution as:

    1) Restricting the Commerce clause as only allowing federal action with respect to adjudicating direct movement of (manufactured) goods between the states, or perhaps from one state to foreign areas.

    2) Restricting the incorporation of rights to those that were required to allow the freed slaves to participate in national and possibly local government.

    3) Restricting the Federal Courts to deciding the constitutionality of  its own functioning, not that of other branches of the Government.

Monitory Policy, (Skepical Optimist)

    Money: The economy’s lubrication

1. Money: The economy’s lubrication
2. Two Printing Presses: One at the Fed, One at the Treasury
3. How the Fed creates money without creating socialism
4. How the US Treasury pays back the debt
5. The public’s T-bond supply
6. Paying down the debt: Our dubious history, and a startling conclusion

Articles on Economic "theories"

•  The Republicans’ new voodoo economics? (Aug 2011) Washington Post
•  "Austrians vs Keynesians: The Scoreboard" (July 2009)
• "Sound Money versus the Gold Standard" (May 2007) 
• "Fifteen Stubborn Ironies for the New Year" (Dec 2006) 

Other interesting stuff

• "For the left, for the tea party, and for everyone: Four questions" I’ve noticed that one of the most difficult questions anyone can face is this:

"Seriously, what would it take for you to change your mind?"

• 1. For the left, If the Bush tax cuts benefitted only the rich, as you’ve been saying for nine years, why are you now saying that letting all the tax cuts expire will hurt the middle class? Which is it: Did the Bush tax cuts help the middle class, or didn’t they?  
• 2. For the tea party, If you had a choice between a tax policy that would increase tax revenues by increasing the number of job creators and taxpayers, versus a policy that would decrease the total debt level by whatever means, which one would you favor? Would you settle for a debt level that is shrinking relative to the size of the economy (an expanding economy with a falling debt/GDP ratio), or would you insist on surpluses that reduced the total debt, regardless of the impact on jobs and job creation?   
• 3. For everyone: Why do we hear so much about where and how to “cut” – but so little about where and how to “grow”?  
• 4. For everyone: How about we redefine the term “balanced budget” as follows: A fiscal budget that causes, or at least coincides with, job creation and economic growth that exceeds debt growth, such that the ratio of debt to GDP is decreasing?

Political Taxonomies

Political Taxonomies

(Google Search)

There are at least two definitions for "Political Taxonomy":

1. A categorization of the  political systems, e.g. Democracy, Dictatorship... (Which I will ignore)
2. A categorization of the ways that individuals value political issues, and perhaps the valuation of an issue. e.g. Liberal, Conservative... (Note this is what I am interested in, MLL)

My theory is that a Good Political Taxonomy allows individuals and policies to be evaluated on each of the "dimensions", e.g. Categories, with a number from +1 thru -1. The objective is to be able to take the generalized distance between a person and a policy, and predict how close the policy is to the person's values. An ideal Taxonomy would:

• Minimize the number of, independant, Categories.
• Choose Categories that are: instinctive, clear, and easy to evaluate.
• Be effective at determining the important areas of agreement and disagreement between people and policies.

My theory is that an individuals and policies, can be  characterized by numeric (+1,-1) measures along each of the Taxonomy Categories and that one can make a reasonable guess as to how much a person prefers a policy by taking the "distance" between their location in the Taxonomy space.

I have tried to collect a list of these individual values taxonomies in  WeMatter.com/links#quiz


The one that I thought was most interesting was the: "Political Position Quiz, World's Smallest Political Quiz: 10 questions-- Libertarian vs. Authoritarian, Left vs. Right. The Advocates"

Note: This is similar to the PoliticalCompus.org analysis (See: below)

I just, 8/8/2011, started the book: "Beyond Red and Blue" and it suggests that there are 12 different political philosophies, (Political Taxonomies) that shape American debates:n

1. Theocracy
2. Natural Law
3. Libertarianism
4. Utilitarianism
5. Free-market Conserfatism
6. Contratirianism
7. Social Conservatism
8. Feminism
9. Mulitculturalism
10. Environmentslism
11. Communitarianism
12. Cosmopolitanism

____________________________________________________________________


See:

Notes Toward A New Political Taxonomy (The American Scene)

• Liberal vs. Conservative -- relates to one’s basic assumptions about human capacities. -- a liberal outlook trusts individuals and questions authority; a conservative outlook distrusts individuals and defers to authority.
  
  • A liberal is someone who is generally impressed with the capacities of an individual, and who therefore wants individuals to be free to develop those capacities. 
  • A conservative by temperament takes the opposite side in this dispute. Most human beings are naturally afraid of freedom, eager to hand over decisionmaking power to some authority.
  
  
• Left vs. Right -- defined by attitudes towards success. -- A left-wing perspective is animated by an affinity for the losers and their interests, while a right-wing perspective is animated by an affinity for the winners and their interests.
  
  • A left-wing perspective is animated by failure and the consequences thereof. Whether we’re talking about Rawlsian liberals or Christian socialists or orthodox Marxist-Leninists, the ultimate object of concern is the miserable of the earth. Their perspective, their needs, are the beginning and the end of political morality.
  • A right-wing perspective is opposite to this. How to design a system that adequately rewards success is the essence of the right-wing political project.
  
  
• Progressive vs. Reactionary -- revolves around attitudes toward time and history -- A progressive viewpoint looks toward the future, while a reactionary looks back to the past.
• The progressive is future-oriented. Things will – or could – be better in the future than they are now.
• The reactionary, by contrast, is past-oriented. Things will – likely – be worse in the future than they are now, just as they were better in the past. 

Political compass 

• The Economic (Left-Right) axis measures one's opinion of how the economy should be run: "left" is defined as the view that the economy should be run by a cooperative collective agency (which can mean the state, but can also mean a network of communes), while "right" is defined as the view that the economy should be left to the devices of competing individuals and organisations. 

• The Social (Authoritarian-Libertarian) axis measures one's political opinions in a social sense, regarding a view of the appropriate amount of personal freedom: "libertarianism" is defined as the belief that personal freedom should be maximised, while "authoritarianism" is defined as the belief that authority and tradition should be obeyed

• US Presidential Election 2008
  

 

Consider no Debt increase

There seems to be more than a 2:1 ratio of the public in favor of no debt limit increase, I'm about ready to abandon the effort to increase it and then let the programs that spend more than, say 10% of the budge ,to be cut about 50% till the next election with no IOU's or change in policies  ...  It's a plan... that saves $981 with only the top level cuts

The second option is "for the Treasury Department to Prioritize", lets see how that works.

Revenue: $2,163 Billion

 Interest:             196
 Social Security   704 <900 so far>
 Medicare           446 <1,346>
 ~50% Security   407 <1,753>

      Leaving: 410 for the rest, which is:

~50% Security   407
  Non-Security   491
  Medicaid         273
  Other              644 <1815>

      Or about a 78% cut in these rest...
  

Proposed Fy12 Status Quo Budget

Outlays (billion):

• Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:

Security ................................................................... 815
Non-security ............................................................ 491
                Subtotal, appropriated programs ..................... 1,306

• Mandatory programs:

Social Security .......................................................... 701
Medicare .................................................................. 446
Medicaid .................................................................. 273
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) 2 ................... –110
Other mandatory programs ......................................... 644

      Subtotal, mandatory programs ................................... 1,954

Net interest ................................................................ 196

            Total outlays ............................................................. 3,456

Receipts (billion):

Individual income taxes ................................................ 899
Corporation income taxes ............................................. 191

• Social insurance and retirement receipts:

Social Security payroll taxes .......................................... 632
Medicare payroll taxes .................................................. 180
Unemployment insurance ................................................ 45
Other retirement .............................................................. 8
Excise taxes .................................................................. 67
Estate and gift taxes ....................................................... 19
Customs duties .............................................................. 25
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System ................... 76
Other miscellaneous receipts ............................................ 21
         Total receipts .......................................................... 2,163

    Deficit ................................................................................ 1,293


See:

• Most Americans oppose raising debt limit  April 21, 2011 ... Just 27 percent of Americans support raising the debt limit, while 63 percent oppose raising it

• Americans Support Higher Taxes. Really. | Capital Gains and Games

•  US Budget Fy12

THE FAIR SOCIETY (A blog about how to get from here to there).

Some Problems with Libertarianism

•  Some Problems with Libertarianism (Part One) December 2, 2010

• Some Problems with Libertarianism (Part Two) December 12, 2010

• Some Problems with Libertarianism (Part Three) July 11, 2011

Other topics

Graphic sites, July 2011

• Government Spending in United States: Federal State Local 2011 (by: Christopher Chantrill blogs at www.roadtothemiddleclass.com.  His Road to the Middle Class is forthcoming.)
• Good Infographics

Free Enterprise market

Free Enterprise market 

Much of economics is based on the assumption that the systems that they are analyzing are a coordinated set of "Free Enterprise Markets" with entities who are guided by "Rational Actor Theory". This entry attempts to clarify my thoughts about the Assumptions and Conclusions of this situation.

Free Enterprise market. (competitive model),

• [T]he flows of services that would be offered and purchased and the prices that would be paid for them if each individual in the market offered or purchased services at the going prices as if his decisions had no influence over them, and
• [T]he going prices were such that the amounts of services which were available equalled the total amounts which other individuals were willing to purchase, with no imposed restrictions on supply or demand.

Rational Actor

Results.

First Optimality Theorem:

• If a competitive equilibrium exists at all, and if all commodities relevant to costs or utilities are in fact priced in the market, then the equilibrium is necessarily [Pareto] optimal in the following precise sense: 'There is no other allocation of resources to services which will make all participants in the market better off'

Second Optimality Theorem:

• If there are no increasing returns in production, and if certain other minor conditions are satisfied, then every optimal state is a competitive equilibrium corresponding to some initial distribution of purchasing power

See:

Kenneth Arrow’s seminal article on the economics of medical care (pdf)

JSTOR: Philosophy & Public Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 4 (Summer, 1977), pp. 317-344 (http://www.jstor.org/pss/2264946)

Philosophy(1)

Philosophy (Main theories) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Branches of philosophy

• Ethics, or "moral philosophy", is concerned primarily with the question of the best way to live, and secondarily, concerning the question of whether this question can be answered. The main branches of ethics are meta-ethics, normative ethics, and applied ethics. Meta-ethics concerns the nature of ethical thought, such as the origins of the words good and bad, and origins of other comparative words of various ethical systems, whether there are absolute ethical truths, and how such truths could be known. Normative ethics are more concerned with the questions of how one ought to act, and what the right course of action is. This is where most ethical theories are generated.^[7] Lastly, applied ethics go beyond theory and step into real world ethical practice, such as questions of whether or not abortion is correct.^[8] Ethics is also associated with the idea of morality, and the two are often interchangeable.
• Political philosophy is the study of government and the relationship of individuals (or families and clans) to communities including the state. It includes questions about justice, law, property, and the rights and obligations of the citizen. Politics and ethics are traditionally inter-linked subjects, as both discuss the question of what is good and how people should live.

• 2.2 Modern ethics
  • 2.2.1 Consequentialism -Jeremy Bentham and John Stuart Mill- the consequences of a particular action form the basis for any valid moral judgment about that action (John Rawls)
    
  • 2.2.2 Deontology - Immanuel Kant - determines goodness or rightness from examining acts, rather than third-party consequences of the act as in consequentialism, or the intentions of the person doing the act as in virtue ethics.
  
  
• 2.3 Postmodern ethics

• 4 Main theories
  • 4.1 Realism and nominalism
  • 4.2 Rationalism and empiricism
  • 4.3 Skepticism
  • 4.4 Idealism
  • 4.5 Pragmatism
  • 4.6 Phenomenology
  • 4.7 Existentialism
  • 4.8 Structuralism and post-structuralism
  • 4.9 The analytic tradition
• 5 Moral and political philosophy
  • 5.1 Human nature and political legitimacy
  • 5.2 Consequentialism, deontology, and the aretaic turn

Kenneth Arrow Was Here (Editorial) HealthCare (4)

June 9, 2011, 5:34 pm

Kenneth Arrow Was Here

Some readers ask why my argument that relatively centralized systems work better for health care  (nyt) than the “free market” isn’t an argument for government ownership of everything.

The answer is that health care is different: it’s a sector in which basically every market failure you can think of takes place. And we’ve known that since Kenneth Arrow’s classic analysis (nyt) half a century ago.
It’s shocking, though not surprising, that we keep having to relearn this basic point.

  See:  

• The Economist’s “Democracy in America” blog has a very good illustration of the reasons our privatized, market-based system is so much more expensive, for no better results, than everyone else’s
• Kenneth Arrow’s seminal article on the economics of medical care (pdf), 
• Toward a 21st-Century Health Care System: Recommendations for Health Care Reform, Kenneth Arrow, PhD ..., April 7, 2009
• Krugman: Why markets can’t cure healthcare, , July 25, 2009

Also see: 

• In defense of Canada -- Comparison with US HealthCare
•  Paul Ryan Budget Would Make Big Changes in Medicare, March 29, 2012
• HealthCare Aug 9, 2007
• HealthCareUS Dec 8, 2008
• HealthCareUS-3 May 13, 2009

Budget fy2012

There are a number of proposed budgets for fy2012. This post attempts to list them:

• Rand Paul's budget bill (PDF) , 
• A detailed {critical} look at the Rand Paul spending bill (Washington Examiner)

• Paul Ryan's Budget -- The Republican "Roadmap Plan" (NewsWeek) 

• Spending Reduction Act of 2011 reduces federal spending by $2.5 trillion over ten years
• The People's Budget, Congressional Progressive Caucus
• Congressional Progressive Caucus People's Budget beats Ryan's corporatist budget by a long shot 

also see:

• Ideological Budget 2/20/2001
• Republican Budgets 1/26/2011

Inequality

I have noted a few books, sites, and results that seem to be related to the Stanford course: 

Books

• An excerpt from Winner-Take-All Politics: How Washington Made the Rich Richer - And Turned Its Back on the Middle Class by Jacob S. Hacker & Paul Pierson (Simon & Schuster, 2011).
  
  
•  The Predator State: How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and
  Why Liberals Should Too -- James Galbraith (Author)
   
• The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger [Paperback]
  Kate Pickett (Author), Richard Wilkinson (Author)   

Graphs, and Sites

What Americans think about income inequality in one graph -- If Americans don't think that there is a wide spread in the income distribution, then they probably will  not vote to change it.

Mahalanobis -- The incomes of the top 3% are distributed according to Pareto's law, (20/80 law) where as the lowest 97% are distributed according to the distribution of energy in gas, e.g. Boltzmann-Gibbs. (Original article, " Why it is hard to share the wealth, 12 March 2005" New Scientist) -- I think that this means 2 things:

• There is a difference between the way income is distributed amoung the rich and the poor, at somewhere around the 3% point. e.g. Adjusted Gross income of ~ $100,000
• The poor's income is distributed randomly e.g. as though in any interchange where as the rich'd income is distributed as though in an interchange the richer one was the more benefit one got from the interchange.

And here is one of the papers "Pareto's Law of Income Distribution: Evidence for Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States" --  that shows that the Incomes of the countries are roughly Power Law distributed.

The Gini as a "function" of Democratic score, I realize that this is just one plot, but it sure does NOT indicate a strong correlation...

Libertarian Party 2010 Platform

    Libertarian Party 2010 Platform Strongly Edited, Mike Liveright

1.0    Personal Liberty -- Individuals should be free to make choices for themselves
1.1    Expression and Communication -- We support full freedom of expression and oppose government censorship
1.2    Personal Privacy -- the rights recognized by the Fourth Amendment to be secure in our persons,
homes, and property.
1.3    Personal Relationships -- Sexual orientation, preference, gender, or gender identity should have no impact on the government's treatment of individuals
1.4    Abortion --we believe that government should be kept out of the matter
1.5    Crime and Justice -- Criminal laws should be limited to violation of the rights of others through force or fraud, or deliberate actions that place others involuntarily at significant risk of harm
1.6    Self-Defense -- The only legitimate use of force is in defense of individual rights — life, liberty, and justly acquired property — against aggression.

2.0    Economic Liberty -- Each person has the right to offer goods and services to others on the free market.
2.1    Property and Contract -- Property rights are entitled to the same protection as all other human rights.
2.2    Environment --  environmental advocates and social pressure are the most effective means of changing public behavior.
2.3    Energy and Resources -- We oppose all government control of energy pricing, allocation, and production.
2.4    Government Finance and Spending -- We call for the repeal of the income tax,  We support the passage of a "Balanced Budget Amendment" to the U.S. Constitution, provided that the budget is balanced exclusively by cutting expenditures, and not by raising taxes.
2.5    Money and Financial Markets -- We favor free-market banking, with unrestricted competition among banks and depository institutions of all types.
2.6    Monopolies and Corporations -- We defend the right of individuals to form corporations, cooperatives and other types of companies based on voluntary association.
2.7    Labor Markets -- We support repeal of all laws which impede the ability of any person to find employment.
2.8    Education -- is best provided by the free market
2.9    Health Care -- We favor restoring and reviving a free market health care system
2.10    Retirement and Income Security -- Retirement planning is the responsibility of the individual

3.0    Securing Liberty -- The protection of individual rights is the only proper purpose of government
3.1    National Defense -- We support the maintenance of a sufficient military to defend the United States against aggression.

3.2    Internal Security and Individual Rights -- The defense of the country requires that we have adequate intelligence to detect and to counter threats to domestic security. This requirement must not take priority over maintaining the civil liberties of our citizens.
3.3    International Affairs -- Our foreign policy should emphasize defense against attack from abroad and enhance the likelihood of peace by avoiding foreign entanglements.
3.4    Free Trade and Migration -- We support the removal of governmental impediments to free trade.  Economic freedom demands the unrestricted movement of human as well as financial capital across national borders.
3.5    Rights and Discrimination -- Government should not deny or abridge any individual's rights based on sex, wealth, race, color, creed, age, national origin, personal habits, political preference or sexual orientation. 
3.6    Representative Government -- We support electoral systems that are more representative of the electorate at the federal, state and local levels.   
3.7    Self-Determination -- Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of individual liberty, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to agree to such new governance as to them shall seem most likely to protect their liberty.

10 Question Political test

There are a number of Quizs (Tests) that show a person, or other's leanings these are available at links/quiz . The simplest one is that by the Libertarian party, Political Position Quiz (10 questions)

Personal Issues 

• Government should not censor speech, press, media, or internet.  
• Military service should be voluntary. There should be no draft.
• There should be no laws regarding sex for consenting adults. 
• Repeal laws prohibiting adult possession and use of drugs.
• There should be no National ID card.  

Economic Issues 

• End "corporate welfare." No government handouts to business. 
• End government barriers to international free trade.
• Let people control their own retirement; privatize Social Security.
• Replace government welfare with private charity   
• Cut taxes and government spending by 50% or more.

Libertarian (5,5)

Liberal (5,0)

Conservative (0,5)

Statest (0,0)

Justice is served, but more so after lunch: how food-breaks sway the decisions of judges

Discovery Discussion

{The original article} shows that the odds that prisoners will be successfully paroled start off fairly high at around 65% and quickly plummet to nothing over a few hours (although, see footnote). After the judges have returned from their breaks, the odds abruptly climb back up to 65%, before resuming their downward slide. A prisoner’s fate could hinge upon the point in the day when their case is heard. 

• Extraneous factors in judicial decisions (abstract). PNAS (Danziger, Leva and Avnaim-Pesso. 2011.)
• Supporting evidence 

AT&T case

In the case of AT& T Mobility v. Concepcion the Supreme Court decided that:

"California state contract law, which deems class-action waivers in arbitration agreements unenforceable when certain criteria are met, is preempted by the Federal Arbitration Act because it stands as an obstacle to the accomplishment and execution of the full purposes and objectives of Congress".
      (Also see: iApp OyezToday)

The decision seems important as "This holding leaves the states with no clear way to ban contracts that insulate companies from liability through class proceeding waivers" as well as it may be a continuation of a trend where the Court decides for Business and against the Individual, I wanted to collect the various materials on this case.

• SCOTUSblog: Docket No. 09-893,   Argument Nov 9, 2010  (Audio), Opinion Apr 27, 2011 (Analysis), Vote 5-4
• Supreme Court Says Business Favorable Arbitration Clauses Can Block Class Action Lawsuits (TechDirt)
• AT&T Mobility v. Concepcion: The Corporate Court Does it Again (Huffing post)
• New SCOTUScast: AT&T Mobility v. Concepcion [Audio] (Federalist Society) 
• The Latest SCOTUS Assault: Lochner’s Back (AT&T vs. Concepcion) (attemptor) 
• Corporatism (Hoarding, Profiteering, AT&T, SCOTUS)

Note: I may also want to look at: American Electric Power Co., Inc. v. Connecticut, Whether federal law allows states and private parties to sue utilities for contributing to global warming.

Ideological Budget

It seems to many people that the House Budget cuts are Justified on the basis of trying to balence the budget, but are specifically motivated by a Conservative ideology.I think it would ber interesting to see what a similar Budget cut that was motivated by a Liberial ideology would be, so I am opening up this Blog comment area for those people who would like to identify programs, and their costs, that Liberals would cut  and Conservatives would prefer to retain.

As a starter I'd suggest eliminating the "Abstinence Only" programs, that would save ~$100m/year

Any other thoughts?

See other articles on Ideological Budgeting:

• GOP deficit-reduction hype used in ideological "values" war?  (Angry Bear)
• Republican governors strike at heart of Democratic Party (Politico)
• But keep your hands off the Defense Department’s budget to sponsor Nascar racers. (New York Times)
   

Republican Budgets (After STOT 2011)

Republican

• Tea Party Budget -- r Rand Paul wants to slash $500 billion in fiscal year 2011, which only has eight remaining months. Bachmann lists more than $400 billion in cuts.
• Rand Paul's budget bill (PDF) 
• A detailed look at the Rand Paul spending bill (Washington Examiner)
• Paul Rayan's Budget -- The Republican "Roadmap Plan" -- would  zero out the deficit, balance the budget by 2063, and reduce Medicare's expected share of the economy in 2080 from a projected 14.3 percent of GDP to a mere 4 percent (NewsWeek) 
• Spending Reduction Act of 2011 reduces federal spending by $2.5 trillion over ten years

Government Funding Deadlines

• March 2011 -- The Senate voted, 82-14, Tuesday to end debate on a continuing resolution to fund the government  By Erik Wasson - 12/21/10 
• April - May 2010 -- The U.S. Treasury on Wednesday pushed back its estimate for when the government might hit the $14.294 trillion limiy
• Timetable of the Federal Budget Process (PDF)
• Feb -- President submits budget
• April -- House/Senate applove the budget
• May -- Appropriations bills considered
• June -- House completes action.
• October -- New Fiscal year starts.

Also See: Republican Government (12/30/2010)

Side Note: Arizona Bill Would Let State Nullify Federal Laws At Will 02/04/2011
Side Note: 20 top State of the Union speeches of the past century would look like as Word Clouds