6/15/2020

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12/18/2012

Second Ammendment

A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.

Gun-Rights Advocates Should Fear History of Second Amendment -- Saul Cornell unravels the tangled history of one of our most misunderstood Amendments.
  •      This ideology claims to rely heavily on the Second Amendment, and yet it is rooted not in the Founders’ vision, but in the insurrectionary ideas of Daniel Shays and those who rose up against the government of Massachusetts in 1786 and 1787. Indeed, there are gun-rights advocates today who think the Second Amendment actually gives them the right to take up arms against the government—but if that were true the Second Amendment would have repealed the Constitution’s treason clause, which defines treason as taking up arms against the government!
  •      Scalia produced a pompous, error-filled opinion that has done more to discredit his beloved originalism than a generation of liberal academics ever could.  
  •      Even leading conservative legal scholars have harshly criticized the ruling: federal judge Richard Posner said most professional historians reject Scalia’s historical analysis in the case, and described Scalia’s jurisprudence as “incoherent”. Perhaps even more damning, J. Harvie Wilkinson, a federal judge appointed by Ronald Reagan, compared Heller to Roe v. Wade 
...
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11/13/2012

15 Bad Arguments We All Abuse

15 Bad Arguments We All Abuse
by LordZB | November 8, 2012 
  1.  Ad hominem – ‘To the man’ arguments are ones which attack the opponent to discredit him without addressing the dispute. “Dr Madeup is an adulterer, therefore you should ignore his medical advice.” 
  2.  Tu quoque – ‘You too.’ This argument is one which occurs when a person attempts to defend themselves by accusing their accuser. “I may be a thief, but you are gambler.” 
  3.  Appeal to popularity – ‘Ad populum.’ This argument, that if a majority believes something it must be true, is a very tempting one. There is safety in numbers. 
  4.  Appeal to tradition – Simply because something is old does not necessarily make it better. “Slavery has existed for most of human history, therefore I should have some slaves to do my gardening.” 
  5.  Argument from authority – ‘Ipse dixit – He said it.’ The appeal to authority can be useful only when the authority a person holds is directly related to the argument. For instance “He has a medical degree, take the medicine he prescribed” is not unreasonable. But “He is a doctor and he says that God is real, therefore there is a chap in the sky” 
  6.  False dichotomy – Also known as the false dilemma, this argument attempts to pin the opponent into a position by offering a biased choice that will undermine them. “Either you are for a total ban on pornography or you want children to watch it.” 
  7.  Post hoc ergo procter hoc – ‘After it, therefore because of it.’ This fallacy is hard-wired into our brains. All humans, and many animals, have a strict sense of causation. That is how superstitions form. “I was wearing these pants when I took the test. I got an A. Therefore these pants will help me get an A on this test.”
  8.  Generalization – “The politician cheated on his expenses, therefore all politicians are cheats.” 
  9.  The straw man – A straw man argument is one which sets up a position the opponent does not hold to discredit them by demolishing it. “My opponent wants to retire the Trident submarine. He wishes to leave us without any form of defense.” 
  10.  The false middle – If presented with two arguments we might be tempted to assume that the truth lies somewhere between the two extremes. “Stabbing someone in the heart is almost always deadly.” “Stabbing someone in the heart is perfectly safe.” 
  11.  Composition – The argument of composition is one which attributes the characteristics of a part to the whole. “Atoms are invisible, the wall is made of atoms, therefore the wall is invisible.”
  12.  Burden of proof – When somebody makes a claim it is up to them to produce evidence in favor of it. This logical fallacy is often used in the form of “Prove it doesn’t exist!”
  13.  Non sequitur – ‘Does not follow.’ The non sequitur is an argument which does not follow logically from its premise. It is often used to sneak a contentious point by hiding it next to a point of agreement. “Murder is illegal and wrong. Cannabis is wrong.” 
  14.  Slippery slope – The slippery slope is a common argument. “If we let homosexuals marry then soon people will be marrying toasters and horses!”
     Fallacy fallacy – This fallacy can occur when you catch an opponent on using a fallacy. “You used a fallacy, therefore all that you said is wrong.”
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11/11/2012

Polling (after the 2012 election)

Polling (after the 2012 election)

      Is Nate Silver Incentive Compatible? – is the “Nate Silver” (or Simon Jackman, or Drew Linzer, or Sam Wang) equilibrium sustainable over the longer term? More precisely – might these models cannibalize the individual polls that they need to draw on for data?

Political Maps (US voting for President)
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11/07/2012

Nov 2012 links


Some Red-State Residents Say They Want to Secede -- But Their States Wouldn't Be Able to Sustain Themselves // If CA were to secede, the state would have a nearly balanced budget. If AL were to secede, it wouldn't be able to pay for stop signs.


The Public Apparently Isn't Interested In Sound Economics

Polarization of US Government
Election Prediction sites, predictions, and discussions:
Data and visualization blogs worth following -- April 27, 2012 by Nathan Yau

Robert Reich (Romneyism)
  1. Corporations are the basic units of society.
  2. Workers are a means to the goal of maximizing corporate profits.
  3. All factors of production – capital, physical plant and equipment, workers – are fungible and should be treated the same. 
  4. Pollution, unsafe products, unsafe working conditions, financial fraud, and other negative side effects of the pursuit of profits are the price society pays for profit-driven growth.
  5. Individual worth depends on net worth 
  6.  People who fail in the economy should not be coddled.
  7. Taxes are inherently bad because they constrain profit-making.
  8. Politics is a game whose only purpose is to win.
  9. Democracy is dangerous because it is forever vulnerable to the votes of a majority intent on capturing the wealth of the successful minority, on whom the economy depends. 
  10. The three most important aspects of life are family, religion, and money. 
  11. Patriotism is a matter of guarding our economy from unfair traders and undocumented immigrants, rather than joining together for the common good.
Soup Kitchens Caused the Great Depression (Krugman), i.e. increased use of the social safety net is a cause rather than a result of the depressed economy.

Charts: FlowingData
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10/17/2012

10 Oct 2012

10 Oct 2012

Turn Your iPhone, iPad, or iPod touch into a Webcam for Your Computer

igHome Totally Looks and Works Like iGoogle -- Replacements for iGoogle "home" page

Why Your 4-Year-Old Is As Smart as Nate Silver And if kids are so smart, why are adults so stupid about statistics?

Nate Silver’s Climate Chapter And What We Can Learn From It By Climate Guest Blogger
Does Extreme Inequality Hurt Growth? by -- Jonathan Rauch discusses the evidence for an unsettling possibility: that the recent trend to extreme inequality in the U.S. economy may be crimping economic growth.

Micro, Macro, Meso, and Meta Economics Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng

Partisan Bias and Economic Forecasts By BRUCE BARTLETT

Misguided “Fiscal Cliff” Fears Pose Challenges to Productive Budget Negotiations
Failure to Extend Tax Cuts Before January Will Not Plunge Economy into Immediate Recession
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9/27/2012

Links-26


"OpenCourseWare" Online Education. (Wikipedia) Open Source Education
     ... Online Universities: Why They Still Don't Measure Up, Cormac Foster November 9th, 2012
     OpenCourseWare(OCW) is a free and open digital publication of high quality educational materials for colleges and universities. 

      3 Free Online Universities To Help You Get By Without A Degree (MakeUseOf.com):
No Excuse List, University of Reddit, University Of The People,

  • Computer Science E-1 Understanding Computers and the Internet (Harvard)
  • CourseRa a social entrepreneurship company that partners with the top universities in the world to offer courses online for anyone to take, for free.
  • Khan Academy:  is an organization on a mission. We're a not-for-profit with the goal of changing education for the better by providing a free world-class education for anyone anywhere.
  • "MIT OpenCourseWare is developing a set of courses called Scholar, which are designed for self-learners. We recently published 6.00 (or Introduction to Computer Science and Programming in normal speak). There are lecture videos, recitation videos, handouts, slides, code files, homework assignments (with sample solutions), and even an explanation on how to set up Python on your computer.  
  • No Excuse Lists: The best place on the web to learn anything, free.  (links)
  • The Physics Textbook: Motion mountain.
  • Texbook Revolution: the web’s source for free educational materials.
  • University of Reddit is the product of free intellectualism and is a haven for the sharing of knowledge. Teachers and students are free to explore any subject that interests them
  • University of the People (UoPeople.Org) is the first tuition-free online university and is backed by United Nations Global Alliance for Information and Communication Technology and Development (GAID). UoPeople is non-profit organization and aims to provide higher eduction to people in all countries regardless of their financial means and geographical location.

     
List of the best of 2005 lists
  • BitTorrent is an easy-to-use implementation capable of swarming downloads across unreliable networks.
  • Post blog/RSS Remix Use washingtonpost.com RSS feeds to experiment with different applications using washingtonpost.com
  • Watts Up Power meter
  • Wolfram tunes
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9/11/2012

Corruption in Government

   Note: one of the useful discusions is what is the meaning of the word "CORRUPTION" and what other words can be used to indicate diffeent Money interactions with Politics.
   Wikipedia: Political   (Corruption in general)
  •  Political: Forms of corruption vary, but include bribery, extortion, cronyism, nepotism, patronage, graft, and embezzlement.  
  • In economy, corruption is payment for services or material which the recipient is not due, under law. This may be called bribery, kickback, or, in the Middle East, baksheesh.
  •  In government: it is when an elected representative makes decisions that are influenced by vested interest rather than their own personal or party ideological beliefs.
But there are other situations where Money that helps a Candidate (or Political effort) can be spent in order to increase the  probability of passing or interpreting a result that benefits or is supported by the spender.

This "Monetary Influence" is not corruption or Quid Pro Quo, i.e. in legal usage: indicates that an item or a service has been traded in return for something of value

Varieties of Monetary Influence:
  • Corruption, Bribery (Bilateral): When the Money is spend, offered, or requested, on the basis of an understanding, Written, or Reasonably understood that a bill or interpretation will be done for the benefit of the spender  and that it would not be done if the money was not spent.
  • Unilateral: When the Money is spent... with no understanding but just an expectation of benefit.
  • Electoral: When the Money is spent... to increase the probability of election of an individual who has committed to favor the benefit. (of course this can be either Bilateral or Unilateral)
  • Moral: When the money is spent... to favor a position that is not economically beneficial by is preferred by the spender.
In all these cases money is spent to influence the outcomes of government and the Richer have more capability and it costs them less (in hourly effort) than to Poorer to express this influence. It is of course, a matter of judgement as to whether our democracy is improved or degraded by having it being monetarily influenced in these ways rather than being a more equal "representation" based more on a One Person, One Vote model.

09/11/2012 ... Return on Investment! (2,000%)
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9/09/2012

Government (and federal) employment

[G]overnment employment is down under Obama. here’s what has happened to government employment per capita: (Krugman 9/9/2012)

Exploding Government: total and federal government employment per capita over time 1990-2012; federal employment is a small part of the picture and per capita is at a historic low; there are blips every 10 years for the census; and overall government employment has fallen in an unprecedented way under Obama.  (Krugman 09/11/2011)

 
     Total Government Employment Since 1962, But Federal government has gone up 
         Year     Executive   Military Legislative ...     Total Federal personnel (thousands)
         1962          2,485     2,840             30        5,354 
         2010          2,776     1,602             64        4,443 (Includes temps for the decennial census)

      Executive Branch Civilian Employment Since 1940
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9/06/2012

09 Sept sites

The Weatherman Is Not a Moron  By NATE SILVER NYT, September 7, 2012

The World Future Society

The Heart of the US Election 

CBO on 'fiscal cliff': newest estimate is gloomiest yet (Christian Science Monitor) (CBO Report) Sept, 2012
  • The CBO, Congress's budget watchdog, warns that the US economy will 'probably' slide back into recession, if the tax hikes and spending cuts mandated for year's end take effect.
  • Baseline -- Allowing fiscal cliff-like fiscal policy to continue for the next decade would lower US deficits to just 0.9 percent of GDP in 2022 with the nation's overall debt falling... to 58 percent in 2022. 
  •  Alternate -- [I]f current tax laws are extended and spending cuts are eliminated, a deficit averaging 5 percent of GDP over the next decade with America owing 90 percent of its GDP in debt come 2022.

New Report on Getting the Best Care

At the National Conventions, the Words They Used (Dynamic)

Orszag: IPAB Will Promote Higher-Value Health Care
Independent Payment Advisory Board Will Help Reduce Health Costs, Repealing IPAB Would be Unwise 

Obama and Romney Tackle 14 Top Science Questions
Are you more (or less) liberal than President Obama? Take our quiz!

Greed and Debt: The True Story of Mitt Romney and Bain Capital By Matt Taibbi,  How the GOP presidential candidate and his private equity firm staged an epic wealth grab, destroyed jobs – and stuck others with the bill

A Look Behind the U.S. Decline in Global Competitiveness

Republicans Are Wrong on Call for Gold Standard
Wealth doesn’t trickle down – it just floods offshore
9 bad decisions people make because of the sunk cost fallacy

Customizable Shortcuts -- Allows to customize Firefox shortcu

Bill Clinton’s Speech: Read the Full Text Here (Barack's 2012 nomination)
=========================================================

Tech: 7 Important Features Your Wireless Router Has And You Should Be Using
Astronomy Photographer Of The Year Competition: Selected Images From The Royal Observatory Greenwich's Competition
We decided to test alkaline, lithium and zinc-chloride cells to find the best AA batteries you can buy for your money on the highstreet and online.
 
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    8/24/2012

    Dover (Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District)

    • "[T]eachers would be required to read the following statement to students in the ninth-grade biology class at Dover High School:
      1. The Pennsylvania Academic Standards require students to learn about Darwin's theory of evolution and eventually to take a standardized test of which evolution is a part.
      2. Because Darwin's Theory is a theory, it is still being tested as new evidence is discovered. The Theory is not a fact. Gaps in the Theory exist for which there is no evidence. A theory is defined as a well-tested explanation that unifies a broad range of observations.
      3. Intelligent design is an explanation of the origin of life that differs from Darwin's view. The reference book, Of Pandas and People, is available for students to see if they would like to explore this view in an effort to gain an understanding of what intelligent design actually involves.
      4. As is true with any theory, students are encouraged to keep an open mind. The school leaves the discussion of the origins of life to individual students and their families. As a standards-driven district, class instruction focuses upon preparing students to achieve proficiency on standards-based assessments."


         Tammy Kitzmiller, et al. v. Dover Area School District, et al., Case No. 04cv2688, was the first direct challenge brought in United States federal courts against a public school district that tried to mandate teachers to read a statement to the students about intelligent design as an alternative "explanation" to evolution. The plaintiffs claimed that intelligent design is a form of creationism, and the school board policy thus violated the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment.
          Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District has closely examined the implications of intelligent design for public schools. The Memorandum Opinion by Judge John E. Jones III sets out his findings in considerable detail and will have significant influence. {See kitzmiller_342.pdf for the Memorandum as originally formatted (pdf).}
         Because of the size of this memorandum, the article is split into parts determined by topics. Successive parts are listed below:
    1. Introduction (1-17)
    2. Context (17-35)
    3. Disclaimer (36-64)
    4. Whether ID Is Science (64-89)
    5. Promoting Religion (90-116)
    6. Curriculum, Conclusion (116-139)
    • [T]he better practice in this Circuit is for this Court to also evaluate the challenged conduct separately under the Lemon test.18 See Child Evangelism, 386 F.3d at 530-35; Modrovich, 385 F.3d at 406; Freethought, 334 F.3d at 261. As articulated by the Supreme Court, under the Lemon test, a government sponsored message violates the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment if:
           (1) it does not have a secular purpose;
           (2) its principal or primary effect advances or inhibits religion; or
           (3) it creates an excessive entanglement of the government with religion.
       Lemon, 403 U.S. at 612-13. As the Lemon test is disjunctive, either an improper purpose or an improper effect renders the ID Policy invalid under the Establishment Clause.19


    • "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."
        
         Originally, the First Amendment applied only to the federal government. A number of the states effectively had established churches when the First Amendment was ratified, with some remaining into the early nineteenth century.
         Subsequently, Everson v. Board of Education (1947) incorporated the Establishment Clause (i.e., made it apply against the states). However, it was not until the middle to late twentieth century that the Supreme Court began to interpret the Establishment and Free Exercise Clauses in such a manner as to restrict the promotion of religion by the states. In the Board of Education of Kiryas Joel Village School District v. Grumet, 512 U.S. 687 (1994), Justice David Souter, writing for the majority, concluded that "government should not prefer one religion to another, or religion to irreligion."[1]

       Note: Defintion of "religion:  1) The belief in and worship of a superhuman controlling power, esp. a personal God or gods."
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    8/15/2012

    Presidential prediction (Polling and Betting)

    The upcoming Presidential and legislative, and state elections are being predicted by various people and methods. This posting is a collection of links to these various sites. (See: discussion of Polling)

    • FiveThirtyEight’s mission [by Nate Silver] is to help New York Times readers cut through the clutter of this data-rich world. The blog is devoted to rigorous analysis of politics, polling, public affairs, sports, science and culture, largely through statistical means. In addition, FiveThirtyEight provides forecasts of upcoming presidential, Congressional, and gubernatorial elections through the use of its proprietary prediction models. Read more (About) »
    • Poll or set of Polls


    Another way to estimate the future is to look at the results of markets. There are a number of market that allow individuals to bet (or pseudo bet) on future outcomes. The "Wisdom of the Crowds" suggests that a large number of individuals will gather a verity of information and if properly managed, isolated, motivated, on average, come up with a more accurate estimate than either they in the field would individually come up with. The following are some of these prediction markets:

    Intrade, the world's leading prediction market (Political market)
    IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) is an online futures market where contract payoffs are based on real-world events such as political outcomes, companies' earnings per share (EPS), and stock price returns.

    ===============================================================

    Which presidential polls were most accurate?

    ================================================================

    Polling
     
    There are a number of sites that discuss the results of their polls, i.e. their asking people how they will vote. The results are interesting but are not "perfect" for at least the following reasons:

    1. Future -- It is hard to predict the  future: Even if the results were perfect, they represent the results as of the time of polling and the actual vote will be taken from the time the initial absentee ballot is marked till the final election day. Thus the poll results only reflect a snapshot of a distributed process in which about 50% will be actualized in the future on voting day
      .
    2. Sample Bias -- The sample is taken from the people at large. On the other hand since we have only 50% of the population voting, and there will be a different distribution of the voters than the polled population, the pollsters try to adjust by determining the "Likely Voters" and the greater tendency of various groups to vote. Since these are not objective, they can cause polls to be incorrect.
       
    3. Sample Size -- A poll asks people how they "plan" to vote. But the general sample size is often about 1,000 people, and thus has a statistical variation of about 3%,e.g. The results will be  more than 3% off 1/20 times. Thus if the results are within 3%, there is a 5% chance that the true results will be the other way.
    Regardless of these  problems Polls are one tool for predicting the future of elections. Perhaps the best way a reader can use the polling results is to looks at results of a number of polls, considering the estimated errors and biases of each, and recognize that though a specific result may be imperfect, the trends and combinations may well be better.

    The following are some links to various polls.
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    8/02/2012

    08, August sites

    •  The Lost Decade of the Middle Class Fewer, Poorer, Gloomier {Note: the middle tier is defined as those living in households with an annual incom that is 67% to 200% of the national median}  (Pew Research Center)
    ========================
    • Open Source Democracy, OSD // A Movement to Develop // A Web Site, A Cloud Computing Service // For Government Change Actions and for American Voters 
      •   
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    7/04/2012

    07, July sites

    July 2012 Sites

    Sept. 30 -- GOP tries to avert shutdown showdown, continuing resolution needed
    Dec. 31 --  Fiscal cliff: major tax cuts expire and $1.2 trillion in spending cuts to go into effect.
    ----------- Geithner has said he estimates that U.S. borrowing could hit the debt ceiling by the end of 2012. 

    SOME American states receive more in federal spending than they pay in federal taxes... (Economist)
    Government Spending and the Economy (11% grew the GDP) By BRUCE BARTLETT
    Bubbles and Bailouts: Why Some Economists Failed (FT, Financial Times)
    What Everyone Should Know About The DISCLOSE Act Of 2012

    S&P changes 1871 - 2010
    CPI change 1871- 2010 (Linear with changes time events)

      These Top 10 iPhone Calendar Apps

      Health Care case   

      Online ACA symposium: A theory of the tax power that justifies – and may have informed – the Chief Justice’s analysis
      Video: SCOTUS ACA Health Care Decision Panel: U.C. Berkeley: July 2, 2012 10 AM (Transcript)
      Supreme Court Decision: What It Means and What's Ahead for Health Reform conference call

      Kaiser Health News – Health care webcast {Video 1 hr}
      ObamaCare Explained So Everyone Can Understand It (Political Irony)
      Is Obamacare The Biggest Tax Increase In History?,  [Chart],  [Tax Increases 1940 - 2012 {pdf}]

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      6/15/2012

      06, June sites

      6/20/2012
      Romney Is Wrong on What Drives a Recovery (GPD change/Givernment spending)
      Our nation’s institutions have crumbled,  ... Hayes pins the blame on an unlikely suspect: meritocracy
      When You’re Gonna Die  In: Science
      America Revealed (PBS and Amazon)

      6/14/2012

           The increases in Debt/GDP occurred during WW II, Reagen, Bush I, and  Bush II, and the Decreases during the presidents after WW II, Clinton,  and sightly under the second Obama term as projected by the OMB.


      6/11/2012
      500 Free Movies Online: Great Classics, Indies, Noir, Westerns, etc.

      Robert Reich on Beyond Outrage: Stopping the Cycle of Political Cynicism
      Books on America’s Divergent Economic Paths By ECONOMIX EDITORS
      Why The Supreme Court Needs To Make Sure That Selling A Used iPad Isn't A Copyright Violation


         Bad Link (1), (2)
         Good Link (1)
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      4/28/2012

      Budget Proposals

      •  CBO Updated Budget Projections:, Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 (March 2012) 
        • Baseline (2013-2022) = -1.4% of GDP
        • Alternative Fiscal Scenario = -5.3% of GDP (2.5% change due to taxes, and 1.4% due to outlays)
      • "Debt, Taxes and Politics: The President's Budget for 2013" Note the DEBT/GDP:
        1. Decreased from WW II till FORD 
        2. a flat-ish period under FORD and CARTER.
        3. Increased under REAGAN and BUSH I,
        4. Started to Decrease under Clinton, and then
        5. Increased at the end of BUSH II and OBAMA.
        6. The president's budget seems to start decreasing the DEBT/GDP ratio in 2015 
         
      • What Caused The Deficit? ... The White House fought back with a chart showing that its policy changes contributed only a small fraction to the worsening deficit picture
      • the BUSH II and OBAMA increase in the Debit was roughly equal to the Bush tax cuts, the Wars, the loss of revenue due to the recession and the automatic recession spending, with a short term, 3 years, also due to the Stimulus "TARP..., Recovery" packages.
      • Individual Income Tax Breaks ~1.3 trillion/year
        • A Roadmap for America’s Future {"Jan 2010, Republican house (Paul Ryan)} is a comprehensive alternative to the heavily government-centered ideology now prevailing in Washington, which pursues a relentless expansion of government, and creates a growing culture of dependency – and in the process worsens a status quo that already threatens to overwhelm the budget and smother the economy."
         Summary
        Obama proposal to Joint Committee:
        • Obama does have a deficit-cutting plan, one that's been lauded for its specifics and includes a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, with an emphasis on near-term stimulus and middle-term deficit reduction -- a hierarchy of priorities that coincides with the advice of economists, who note that unemployment is still the most immediate need. (PDF)

        Simpson-Bowles proposal:
        • On November 1, 2010 the committee submitted its final report making recommendations on discretionary spending, tax reform, health care savings, social security, and other mandatory programs. The plan needed a super-majority to be officially supported by the committee, but on December 3, 2010 if received only 11 of the 14 votes needed.  (http://www.thepoliticalguide.com)
        • What Was Actually in Bowles-Simpson? (From: The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities)
          •                                       Total plan   Not yet enacted
            Ten-year cumulative totals in trillions of dollars
            Revenue increases $2.6 $2.6
            Program cuts $2.9 $1.4
            Interest savings $0.8 $0.6
            TOTAL deficit reduction $6.3 $4.6
            Ratio, program cuts to revenue increases
            Not counting interest 1.1 to 1.0 0.5 to 1.0
            Counting interest 1.4 to 1.0 0.8 to 1.0

             


        • The Congressional Progressive Caucus’s Budget for All puts Americans back to work, charts a path to responsible deficit reduction, enhances our economic competitiveness, rebuilds the middle class and invests in our future. Our budget makes no cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits, and asks those who have benefited most from our economy to pay a sensible share. Executive Summary: (PDF)
         Social Security

        Paul Ryan (and Romney) negative links.

        Various graphs/analysis of Budget factors
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            3/23/2012

            Health bill, Supreme Court

             Health bill, Supreme court

            See Previous HelthCareUS etc.

            (SCOTUSblog)

            SCOTUSblog: Our health care resource page, including briefs and documents, argument previews ..
             

            (American Progress)


            SCOTUS Preview Part I:     What The Heck Is The Tax Anti-Injunction Act?
            SCOTUS Preview Part II:   Clement’s Misleading Brief, By Ian Millhiser on Mar 23, 2012
             SCOTUS Preview Part III: The Perils Of Overreach
            SCOTUS Preview Part IV:   The Big Scary 
            Romney Celebrates Health Care Reform Anniversary By Lying About It
            1. “ It’s more like double that (a trillion dollars) …Obamacare is massively more expensive than had been originally estimated.”
            2. “Thirty percent of employers said they are going to drop the coverage for their employees when Obamacare is installed.” 
            3. “The Catholic Church is being told that they have to provide insurance that covers morning after pills, sterilizations, and contraceptives. Despite the fact that these very features violate the conscience of the Catholic Church itself. 
            ==============================================================

            The Multimillionaire Helping Republicans Win N.C. (NPR summary)

            ===============================================================

            George Washington University School of Business March 2012

            The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis Origins and Mission of the Federal Reserve, (Videos)

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            3/20/2012

            March 20, 2011

             March 20, 2011

            10 Ways to Visualize How Americans Spend Money on Health Care - Derek Thompson - Business - The Atlantic

            Does the American Dream Exist Only in Europe? -- Perhaps. But if you think America’s class system is as rigid as Europe’s, then you don’t know an old-fashioned social hierarchy when you see one.

            The Twilight of Retirement's Golden Age -- Chart of the Week, March 20, 2012


            The Most Conservative Congress Ever Recorded --  Republicans are both beholden to the 1 percent and responsible for the hyper-polarization of Congress. A new study by Poole has found that Republicans have moved so far to the right that the House is now the most conservative it has even been in the last 133 years

            Teaching Abstinence Works Better Than Sex Ed, Feb 2, 2010
            • 1/2 -- Just under half of the students in the study who received sex-education classes that included information about contraceptives went on to have sex in the next two years. 
            • 1/3 -- But only one out of three students in the study who received abstinence-only education did.
            "MIT OpenCourseWare is developing a set of courses called Scholar, which are designed for self-learners. We recently published 6.00 (or Introduction to Computer Science and Programming in normal speak). There are lecture videos, recitation videos, handouts, slides, code files, homework assignments (with sample solutions), and even an explanation on how to set up Python on your computer.

            The Origin of Modern Republican Fiscal Policy, By BRUCE BARTLETT
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            3/13/2012

            Political Polarization ... voteview blog

            • The national government is strongly Ideologically Polarized, and by Party Polarization. This segregation seems to have been increasing, at least amount our government officials and perhaps even among our population.

            VoteView.com /Blog

            Media and Polarization, (56p) Nov 16, 2010 , Filipe Campante, Harvard Kennedy School
            • This paper provides an economic framework to explain the impact of the media on political polarization.
             
            Who Fits the Left-Right Divide? Partisan Polarization in the American Electorate, Edward G. Carmines (See:)
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            3/10/2012

            2012/03 stuff



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            2/20/2012

            Betting sites, Specifically Barack Obama to be re-elected

            Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 
            •  2012/02/20 -- 59%
            The IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) is an online futures market where contract payoffs are based on real-world events such as political outcomes, companies' earnings per share (EPS), and stock price returns.
            • 2012/02/20 -- 60%
            Discussion of betting sites:


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            2/17/2012

            Economic Indexes

            CPI [core] -- Consumer Price Index, the best known measure of inflation (which is the overall inflation rate excluding Food and Energy). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. (This also shows the growth of the CPI components as well as the core and extended CPI growth)

             Inflation Deflation- New York Times (Econmix.blogs) Aug, 2011


            "John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics"
            An electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype.


            INFLATION
            GDP -- Goss Domestic Product.
            The S&P Composite (CPI adjusted) stretching back to 1871


             
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              Items Feb 2012

              The course 'Model Thinking' will go live very shortly. When it does go live, we'll be asking you to officially register and agree to some standard terms and conditions. In the interim, you can now go to the site ... and watch the first two sets of lectures. [See mail]
              • The first set of lectures covers the benefits of modeling and provides a framework for the course. 
              • The second set covers Thomas Schelling's seminar model of segregation as well as a model of standing ovations that I developed with John Miller of Carnegie Mellon University.
                   I’m beginning a new project at Stanford/CDDRL called “The Governance Project.” The intention is to focus on conceptualizing and measuring governance, and applying those measures to two specific countries, China and the United States....
                   I discuss these issues at greater length in a paper on authoritarian government in Asia for the Journal of Democracy, and a draft discussion paper on how to define and measure governance (pdf) for The Governance Project.


              Gov 2.0 year in review ... A look at the Gov 2.0 themes, moments and achievements that made an impact in 2011.

              Coming Apart: The State of White America

              David Frum recently reviewed .... "Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010".
                   [by Charles  Murray] -- Feb 9, 2012

              Charles Murray [perhaps] does a Tucker Carlson, provoking me to unleash the usual torrent of graphs
                    -- 8 February 2012,

              Citizens Untied

              The Media’s Shameful, Inexcusable Distortion Of The Supreme Court’s Citizens United Decision
                   by Dan Abrams  -- February 8th, 2012

              Corporate Leveraging of Campaign Contributions Under Citizens United
                   Posted by Beverly Mann | 2/10/2012


              WWS 594, Economics of the Welfare State,  [Paul Krugman]

              Class #1 -- Feb. 8: Introduction,Class #2, February 15,

              Berin Szoka: "Privacy, Analytics & the First Amendment" at GSM Workshop
              November 11, 2011, 2:00 PM - 4:00 PM


               Political Polarization (VoteView)

              Obama the Moderate (a plot of the last 11 presidential positions Liberal/Conservative) [Forwarded to: Edward G. Carmines] carmines@indiana.edu 

              An Update on Political Polarization (through 2011) -- Posted on January 30, 2012 by voteview


              Obama's Economic Speech

              President Obama's speech in Oklahoma

              The Most Important Economic Speech of His Presidency [Robert Reich]
              HealthCare

              The Options for Payment Reform in U.S. Health Care // By UWE E. REINHARDT, February 17, 2012
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              Wow: Larry Lessig Interviews Jack Abramoff

              ‘Repeal’ of Glass-Steagall Irrelevant to Financial Crisis by Thomas E. Woods, Jr.

              Social Security: The Elevator Pitch, Posted by Steve Roth | 1/29/2012 

              Nick Kristof and the School Reform Straw Man 01/23/2012 by Peter Hart

              The Best App Discovery App for iPhone ... , Discovr Apps makes it easy to find what you're looking for by mapping apps you like (or any app at all) to related options you may enjoy as well.

              Create a Bootable Linux Flash Drive in Three Easy Steps By Rick Broida, PCWorld    Feb 13, 2012

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